New Coronavirus News from 11 Oct 2022

A COVID-19 Surge Could Come This Winter After Europe Spike [TIME, 11 Oct 2022]

BY JAMIE DUCHARME

We May Be in for Yet Another COVID-19 Surge This Fall and Winter
Fall and winter have always been peak seasons for respiratory viruses. As the weather cools in many parts of the U.S., people are forced into indoor environments where viruses can spread more easily. Holiday gatherings and travel can also become breeding grounds for disease.

That’s one reason why experts are worried that COVID-19 case counts may rise in the U.S. in the coming weeks. But there’s also another. To help forecast COVID-19 rates for the U.S., experts often look to Europe—and the data there aren’t promising. More than 1.5 million COVID-19 diagnoses were reported across Europe during the week ending Oct. 2, about 8% more than the prior week, according to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) latest global situation report, published Oct. 5. More than 400,000 of those diagnoses came from Germany, and almost 265,000 came from France.

“We’re concerned,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead on COVID-19, at an Oct. 5 press briefing. “In the Northern Hemisphere, we’re entering autumn and the winter months, so we will see co-circulation of other viruses like influenza….We need health systems to be prepared.”

The U.S. doesn’t always follow in Europe’s footsteps. The Alpha variant, for example, caused a larger spike in Europe than in the U.S. But European outbreaks related to Delta and Omicron predated similar surges in the U.S.

COVID-19 in the U.S. has been at a “high-plains plateau” for months, says Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. Since the spring, roughly 300 to 500 people have died from COVID-19 each day—a rate that is still tragically high but relatively stable.

The situation in Europe “may be a harbinger of things to come,” Osterholm says. He fears a “perfect storm” may be brewing, threatening to turn that U.S. plateau into another surge.

Waning immunity, low booster uptake, ever-evolving subvariants that are increasingly good at evading the immune system, and people behaving as if the pandemic is over all suggest “we are headed to the end of the high-plains plateau,” Osterholm says. “I just don’t know what [the next phase] looks like.”

Federal case counts aren’t showing an uptick in the U.S. yet; in fact, daily diagnoses and hospitalization rates have fallen steadily since July. But case counts have become increasingly unreliable as more people rely on at-home tests and states pull back on reporting. Osterholm says he pays closer attention to death and hospitalization rates, but both lag behind actual spread of the virus, since it can take time for infections to become serious enough to result in hospitalization or death.

Meanwhile, the CDC’s wastewater surveillance dashboard, which tracks the level of virus detected in wastewater samples across the country, suggests circulation is increasing in multiple parts of the country, including portions of the Northeast and Midwest.

Taken together, the signs suggest a surge is coming, says Arrianna Marie Planey, an assistant professor of health policy and management at the University of North Carolina’s Gillings School of Global Public Health.

“I don’t like to use the word ‘inevitable’ because all of this is preventable,” Planey says. “It’s just that prevention is harder and harder at this stage of the pandemic,” when mitigation measures like mask mandates have fallen away and many people either don’t know about or don’t want to get the new Omicron-specific boosters.

Planey has been encouraging people she knows to get boosted and making sure they know about tools like Evusheld (a vaccine alternative for people who are immunocompromised or unable to get their shots) and the antiviral drug Paxlovid. She says she’d like to see more urgency from the government, including stronger communication about the need to get boosted and a continued push for those who haven’t been vaccinated at all to get their primary shots.

The problem, Osterholm says, is getting people to actually heed those warnings. Many polls show that Americans are ready to leave the pandemic behind, even if the virus continues to spread and mutate in the future.

That leaves public-health experts with the frustrating job of repeating the same advice they’ve given for the last several years, to an increasingly detached audience. “There’s no joy in saying, ‘I told you so,’” Planey says, “because people are sick and dying.”

New Coronavirus News from 15 Oct 2022

Covid Cases Rise In Europe As France Enters Eighth Wave [Forbes, 15 Oct 2022]

By Cecilia Rodriguez

With winter approaching, France has “officially” entered its eighth wave of Covid-19. Over 50,000 daily cases have been confirmed and French health officials are considering whether to once again impose masks in public places and transport.

The Health Ministry warned last month that a new wave was imminent after cases jumped by 55.5%. The figures from the Health Ministry and health authority Santé publique France show the daily average of contagion at around 17,000 and rising.

The situation in France reflects the resurgence of the epidemic brewing in Europe as cooler weather arrives, “with public health experts warning that vaccine fatigue and confusion over types of available vaccines will likely limit booster uptake,” Reuters explains.

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has reported that fifteen countries in the region are reporting increasing cases with the highest new infection rates in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Latvia and Liechtenstein.

Behind most of the cases is the Omicron subvariants BA.4/5 that dominated this summer but the World Health Organization is tracking many new subvariants that are gaining ground.

According to its most recent data, the number of cases in the European Unionreached 1.5 million last week, up 8% from the prior week as the number of hospitalizations across the member nations and Britain continue to mount.

“In the week ended October 4, Covid-19 hospital admissions with symptoms jumped nearly 32% in Italy, while intensive care admissions rose about 21%, compared to the week before, according to data compiled by independent scientific foundation Gimbe,” Reuters report.

Although ECDC launched new vaccine campaigns with Omicron-adapted formulas addressing subvariants alongside first-generation vaccines, the rate of vaccination is lower—between 1 million and 1.4 million in September, compared with 6-10 million per week during the year-earlier period, ECDC data shows.

According to data from the British Office for National Statistics (ONS), about one in 65 people in England—an estimated 1,105,400 individuals—had Covid at the end of September.

The perception that the pandemic is over, creating a false sense of security, is among the causes for the lowest interest in vaccination. Some experts blame governments for being ill prepared for the autumn/winter season, along with spreading social media campaigns by anti-vaccine movements.

French complacency? The Covid-19 pandemic still seems far from over, writes Le Progres, “At the start of autumn, the contamination figures in France are soaring, specially among young people.”

"All the indicators are on the up," Brigitte Autran, a leading health official and president of Covars, the Committee for Monitoring and Anticipating Health risks in France, told the agency.

She also announced that the committee is considering the possibility of making the use of masks compulsory again in certain spaces, “with different models.”

“The incidence rate — number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants — was 293 per 100,000 inhabitants, an increase of 57% last week compared to the additional 12% reported the previous week,” Public Health France acknowledged. It’s more extended among children aged under 10, which is thought to be linked to September’s return to school.“The increase in contamination is mainly driven by those under 20,” the institution said.

Same as last year
This is not an unprecedented situation, according to Le Point. “At this same time in 2021, with the return to school, the Delta variant, which had also caused a summer wave, had returned to trigger an autumn/winter wave.”

The majority of the current cases are from sub-variants of the Omicron strain BA5, which are more contagious but generally less virulent.

“It seems that the current dominant sub-variant of Omicron, BA.5, which hit Europe this summer, has been spreading again since the start of the school year and is progressing in all regions of metropolitan France (except Corsica), and in almost all Western European countries,” the magazine reports.

An expected wave
“Incidence rates have begun to rise again with the beginning of the school year, but the impact of this new episode is hard to predict,” wrote Le Monde.

“This eighth wave has indeed been expected for a long time. The last two years have shown the seasonality of the coronavirus, whose circulation favors the arrival of the cold seasons.”

The fall wave “was inevitable,” Giles Pialoux, head of the infections and tropical diseases at Tenon hospital in Paris told the paper and enumerated several factors: “all the elements that reinforce social interactions in closed places, the increase in time since the last vaccine injection, and the insufficient vaccine coverage for the second boost."

The Health Minister François Braun explained that the government is following “the potential evolution of this epidemic” and recommended people in France “to take responsibility,” and think about bringing back their social distancing and hygiene measures where appropriate.

Currently, mask-wearing is not mandatory in outdoor public areas, nor on different public transport means. Mask-wearing is recommended only for vulnerable people accessing indoor places and large gatherings, Schengenvisainfo reports.
Extended vaccination
“It is believed that the rules continue to remain relaxed as the majority of the population has already completed vaccination.”

The ECDC shows that France has administered a total of 153,347,334 coronavirus vaccines as of September 22. According to ECDC, 92.2% of the entire adult population in France have already completed primary vaccination, 74.7 % have received the first booster shot, and 11.6 % have taken the second booster shot.

ECDC has recommended that all member countries start offering newly-authorized and adapted vaccines to support the planning of vaccination campaigns for autumn and winter.

The health institution has urged that boosters be directed first to people over the age of 60, vulnerable people with underlying conditions, pregnant women and the immunocompromised.

The new COVID-19 wave looming on the European continent could signal what's to come for the United States.

The CDC has reported the rise of virus levels in various regions of the country including the Northeast and Midwest.

New Coronavirus News from 9 Nov 2022

Brace Yourself for a Triple Wave of Seasonal Viruses [Wired, 9 Nov 2022]

Many people haven’t been exposed to common respiratory viruses following the pandemic, meaning they might be more vulnerable to getting ill this year.

Every year it’s the same. As soon as it starts to get cold, people gather indoors. Windows are pulled shut. Commuters forgo walking or cycling, opting for packed buses and subways. Our whole world retreats to where it’s warm, our breath condensing on the windows of homes, offices, schools, and transport, showing just how well we’ve sealed ourselves off from the outside. We create, in short, the perfect breeding ground for viruses.

When the respiratory virus season begins, it’s usually quite predictable. Patients start being admitted to hospitals with influenza or respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) around October in the northern hemisphere. Thousands of people get ill, and many die, but the odd extreme year aside, health systems across Europe and North America aren’t typically at risk of being overwhelmed.

But the pandemic has derailed this predictability. It has added another virus to the seasonal mix, and flu and RSV are returning this year with a vengeance. A “twin” or even “tripledemic” could be on the way, with all three viruses hitting at once, illnesses soaring, and health systems creaking under the pressure. Already there are signs this is happening.

Many hospitals in the US are at capacity, caring for large numbers of children infected with RSV and other viruses, many more than would be expected at this time of year. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) doesn’t track RSV cases, hospitalizations, and deaths as it does for flu, but hospitals across the country have been reporting peak levels typically observed in December and January. Nearly one in fivePCR tests for RSV came back positive in the week ending October 29, with this rate having doubled over the course of a month. Generally speaking, the higher the proportion of tests that come back positive, the more common a virus is in the wider community. In the three years before the pandemic, an average of just 3 percent of tests came back positive in October.

This is a hangover from the pandemic. Over the past two years, RSV and flu were kept down thanks to the protective measures people took against the coronavirus: mask wearing, hand washing, and isolating. Between the beginning of the pandemic and March 2021, the weekly positivity rate for RSV tests remained below 1 percent, according to the CDC—down where it was in pre-pandemic times.

In July of this year, health specialists warned in The Lancet that the benefits of these pandemic precautions could end up having a negative effect this winter season. Reducing exposure to common endemic viruses such as RSV and flu, experts argued, risked creating an “immunity gap” in people either born during the pandemic or who hadn’t previously built up sufficient immunity against these viruses.

That prediction now appears to be coming true, as children are catching these viruses for the first time, without having built up any prior immunity, and falling badly ill. “We’re seeing kids at older ages getting RSV that would have previously got it at a younger age,” says Rachel Baker, an assistant professor of epidemiology at Brown University in Rhode Island, who was a coauthor of the Lancet comment piece. “That’s putting some pressure on hospitals.”

RSV typically causes mild cold-like symptoms, but infections can be dangerous for infants. Their tiny lungs and muscles cannot muster the strength to cough up or sneeze out the mucus in their airways. Deaths are rare, but the virus can kill. Adults with weaker immune systems are vulnerable too, such as those with underlying health conditions or who are very old. Unlike for Covid-19 and flu, there are currently no approved RSV vaccines (Pfizer has one in trials, given to pregnant people to protect infants, that may become available next year).

Flu hospitalizations have also been higher than usual for this time of year—13,000 adults and children have been hospitalizedin the US so far, and 730 people have died. “We’re seeing the highest influenza hospitalization rates going back a decade,” José Romero, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said on November 4. And a similar picture is emerging across Europe. The United Kingdom’s Health Security Agency said in late October that hospital admissions for respiratory diseases are rising, and they’re climbing fastest in children under 5.

The fact that the southern hemisphere is coming off a pretty bad winter season—Australia experienced its worst flu season in five years—is another signal that the northern hemisphere is in for a rough one. Flu viruses that circulate during the southern hemisphere winter often end up infecting people in the north six months later, so more illness in Australia suggests this winter’s flu in the US and Europe will be particularly virulent. “For many healthy adults this will predominantly be an inconvenience, but for vulnerable groups this could be a concern,” says Neil Mabbott, professor of immunopathology at the University of Edinburgh in the UK.

This winter will be the first time that these three respiratory viruses can circulate completely freely, meaning there is a real prospect of things getting worse. But SARS-CoV-2, because of its ability to mutate, is a wildcard when trying to guess exactly what will happen. “It’s like a dream and a nightmare for someone doing prediction,” says Mary Krauland, a research assistant professor who models SARS-CoV-2 and influenza outbreaks at the University of Pittsburgh.

Because there are no plans to reintroduce control measures, Krauland says it is quite possible that SARS-CoV-2 infections will surge again this winter, ratcheting up pressure on health services. It is unclear whether that surge would collide with the influenza and RSV peaks. “You can imagine many scenarios, but it’s very difficult to pin down which one is the most likely,” she says. At the moment, most Covid cases are caused by lineages of the Omicron variant that seem to cause milder disease than earlier forms of the virus but which are able to dodge immunity from vaccines and previous infections. These variants and subvariants also compete with each other for human hosts. Should a new, more infectious variant emerge and outcompete the others, Krauland says, infections could rise sharply again. Hospitals could then feel the effects, because as infections accumulate, the number of hospitalizations and deaths also increase.

For the health system, two or three simultaneous epidemics is a worrying scenario, but so too is the prospect of contracting more than one virus at the same time. Scientists are not sure how the viruses interact, but there is evidence that simultaneously catching SARS-CoV-2 and influenza increases the risk of severe illness and death. In a study of nearly 7,000 hospitalized patients with Covid-19, researchers in the UK found that 227 patients had also tested positive for the flu, and they were more likely to require ventilation.

But how the influenza and RSV viruses interact and influence the course of disease is not clear: There have been few studies investigating this, with conflicting results, says Pablo Murcia, professor of integrative virology at the University of Glasgow. This is due to various confounding factors that muddy the water in coinfections, such as a patient’s preexisting conditions or their immunological status, the strains of viruses involved, or the time that’s elapsed between the first and second viral infection.

Catching both viruses at the same time is a troubling possibility. In a lab experiment, Murcia and his team deliberately infected human lung cells with both viruses and found that they fused together to form a palm-tree-shaped hybrid virus—with RSV forming the trunk and influenza the leaves—which could infect new cells even in the presence of flu antibodies, in essence using its new form to bypass existing flu immunity. Their findings were published in the journal Nature Microbiology in October. But it’s not known whether hybrid viruses form in people, and if they do, whether they cause disease, says Murcia.

Krauland expects that few people will contract multiple viruses at once, provided they stay at home as soon as they notice any symptoms of infection, even if mild. “The three are kind of competing for hosts at this point,” she says, and if they are, this could lead to all three viral waves being flattened. But whether this will happen—and if so, if it will keep hospitals from buckling under the pressure—we probably won’t know until spring.

China's manufacturing hub Guangzhou locks down millions as Covid outbreak widens [CNN, 9 Nov 2022]

By Nectar Gan

Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world

Hong KongCNN —
China’s southern metropolis of Guangzhou has locked down more than 5 million residents, as authorities rush to stamp out a widening Covid outbreak and avoid activating the kind of citywide lockdown that devastated Shanghai earlier this year.

Guangzhou reported 3,007 local infections on Wednesday, accounting for over one third of new cases across China, which is experiencing a six-month high in infections nationwide.

The city of 19 million has become the epicenter of China’s latest Covid outbreak, logging more than 1,000 new cases – a relatively high figure by the country’s zero-Covid standards – for five straight days.

As the world moves away from the pandemic, China still insists on using snap lockdowns, mass testing, extensive contact-tracing and quarantines to stamp out infections as soon as they emerge. The zero-tolerance approach has faced increasing challenge from the highly transmissible Omicron variant, and its heavy economic and social costs have drawn mounting public backlash.

The ongoing outbreak is the worst since the start of the pandemic to have hit Guangzhou. The city is the capital of Guangdong province, which is a major economic powerhouse for China and a global manufacturing hub.

Most cases in Guangzhou have been centered in Haizhu district – a mostly residential urban district of 1.8 million people on the southern bank of the Pearl River. Haizhu was locked down last Saturday, with residents told not to leave home unless necessary and all public transport – from buses to subways – suspended. The lockdown was initially supposed to last for three days, but has since been extended to Friday.

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Two more districts – with a combined population of 3.8 million – were locked down on Wednesday as the outbreak widened.

Residents in Liwan, an old district in the west of the city, woke to an order to stay at home unless absolutely necessary. College and universities in the district were told to lock down their campuses. Restaurant dining was banned and businesses ordered to shut, apart from those providing essential supplies.

On Wednesday afternoon, a third district, the outlying Panyu, announced a lockdown that will last till Sunday. The district also banned private vehicles and bicycles from the streets.
Starting from Thursday, all primary and middle schools in the city’s eight urban districts are moving class online, with kindergartens closed. Tutoring classes, training institutions and daycare centers will also suspend services, the city’s education officials told a news conference Wednesday.

Mass testing has been rolled out in nine districts across the city, and more than 40 subway stations have been closed. Residents deemed close contacts of infected persons – which in China can range from neighbors to those living in the same building or even residential compound – have been transferred en masse to centralized quarantine facilities.

The outbreak has also led to mass cancellations at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, one of the busiest in the country. As of Thursday morning, 85% of the nearly 1,000 flights arriving and departing from Guangzhou had been canceled, according to data from flight tracking company Variflight.


“At present, there is still the risk of community spread in non-risk areas, and the outbreak remains severe and complex,” Zhang Yi, deputy director of the Guangzhou municipal health commission, told a news conference Tuesday.
So far, the lockdown appears to be more targeted and less draconian than those seen in many other cities. While residents living in neighborhoods designated as high-risk cannot leave home, those in so-called low-risk areas within locked down districts can go out to buy groceries and other daily necessities.
But many fear a blanket, citywide lockdown could be imminent if the outbreak continues to spread. On WeChat, China’s super app, residents share charts comparing Guangzhou’s surging caseload with that of Shanghai’s in late March, in the days before the eastern financial hub’s bruising two-month lockdown.
Shanghai officials initially denied a citywide lockdown was necessary, but then imposed one after the city reported 3,500 daily infections.
Anticipating that worse is to come, many residents in Guangzhou have stocked up on food and other supplies. “I’ve been buying (groceries and snacks) online like crazy. I’ll probably end up eating leftovers for a month,” said one resident, whose area of Haizhu district was categorized as low-risk by authorities.
Others, angered by the restrictions and testing edicts, have taken to social media to vent their frustration. On Weibo, China’s Twitter-like platform, posts using slang and expletives in the local Cantonese dialect to criticize zero-Covid measures have proliferated, seemingly largely evading the eyes of online censors who do not understand it.
“I learn Cantonese curse words in real-time hot search everyday,” one Weibo user said.
Meanwhile local authorities nationwide are under pressure to ramp up Covid control measures despite mounting public frustration.
This week, videos of Covid workers dressed head to toe in hazmat suits beating up residents went viral online. Following an outcry, police in Linyi city, Shandong province said in a statementTuesday that seven Covid workers had been detained following a clash with residents.

Japan braces for 8th wave as COVID-19 spreads again | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis [Asahi Shimbun, 9 Nov 2022]

Japan’s health minister said the government is taking every precaution to contain a possible eighth wave in the COVID-19 pandemic this winter following a spike in cases nationwide.

Speaking after a Nov. 8 Cabinet meeting, Katsunobu Kato called on the public to stock up on COVID-19 antigen test kits as well as fever and pain relief medicines to prepare for the risk of concurrent influenza and novel coronavirus outbreaks in the weeks ahead.

Health ministry figures show that the number of new COVID-19 patients across Japan in the week through Nov. 7 was 1.42 times that of the preceding seven-day period.

The increase was especially notable in Hokkaido and the Tohoku region of northern Japan, ministry officials said.

“We will be proactive and do what we have to do without fail,” Kato said at a news conference, adding that the government is asking prefectural authorities to ensure they have the necessary medical backup.

Asked whether the government will continue to bear all costs needed for administering COVID-19 vaccines when its policy of free jabs expires at the end of March, Kato said, “We intend to make an appropriate decision, taking into account such factors as how the infection is spreading and the law on infectious diseases.”

Members of a subcommittee of the Fiscal System Council, an advisory panel to the finance minister, said at its meeting Nov. 7 that COVID-19 shots should be recategorized as “regular vaccinations,” just like those for influenza.

That would likely require recipients to shoulder part of the cost from the new fiscal year starting April 1.

On Nov. 8, Hokkaido marked a record daily tally of new COVID-19 patients at 9,136.

The same day, new cases in Tokyo topped 8,000 for the first time in about six weeks at 8,665.

Haruo Ozaki, chairman of the Tokyo Medical Association, told a Nov. 8 news conference the capital is “on the verge of entering the eighth wave.”

The Osaka prefectural government the same day raised its alert level from green to yellow based on its own barometer, which it calls the “Osaka model.”

A yellow signal means the prefectural government is urging residents to be on the alert for a surge in infections.

The last time the prefectural government issued the yellow alert was Oct. 10.

As of Nov. 6-7, the occupancy rate of hospital beds in Osaka Prefecture set aside for COVID-19 patients reached 20 percent, one of the thresholds that prefectural officials use to consider issuing a yellow alert.

Members of a task force set up by the prefectural government to tackle the health crisis were unable to decide during a Nov. 8 meeting whether Osaka has entered the eighth wave.

But they agreed that anti-COVID-19 measures should be escalated to prepare for the possibility of simultaneous influenza epidemics and the COVID-19 pandemic.

New Coronavirus News from 7 November 2022

Why New COVID-19 Variants Have Such Confusing Names [TIME, 7 Nov 2022]

BY JAMIE DUCHARME

If you can name the currently circulating coronavirus variants without looking them up, your memory is better than most people’s—even those who are still paying attention to COVID-19.

At the moment, the top five variants in the U.S. are called BA.5 (making up about 39% of new cases, per the latest data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), BQ.1.1 (almost 19%), BQ.1 (16.5%), BA.4.6 (9.5%), and BF.7 (9%). Meanwhile, the XBB variant has been detected in at least 35 countries, and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control is monitoring a variant called B.1.1.529.

This alphabet-soup nomenclature feels like a marked departure from the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Greek letter system, which was instituted in May 2021 to give people an easy and location-neutral way to refer to new variants. While the Greek lettering system, which yielded names like Alpha, Beta, and Delta, did not replace existing scientific naming systems—such as those responsible for labels like BA.5 and XBB—it was meant to simplify public communication about important viral strains.

The WHO only assigns a new Greek letter to a variant if it’s significantly different from previous versions. And for the last year, we’ve seen flavor after flavor of Omicron, rather than totally new iterations of the virus, explains Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead for COVID-19. That’s why we haven’t yet had a strain called Pi.

Dr. Peter Hotez, co-director of the Center for Vaccine Development at Texas Children’s Hospital, has nicknamed the newer strains “Scrabble variants,” because many of them contain high-scoring Scrabble letters like Q and X. And, he adds, because they “kind of scrabble your brain.”

“I’m a scientist who’s been developing coronavirus vaccines for the last decade, and it’s even challenging for people like myself” to follow them, Hotez says. They’re not just hard to remember. The names are enough to make the average person’s eyes glaze over—which isn’t great, considering that much of the public has already checked out of the pandemic.

Van Kerkhove, however, argues that the public probably doesn’t need to know all the granular details of BQ.1 versus BQ.1.1 versus BF.7. “What the general public really needs to know is, what does it mean for me in terms of risk? We will give new names using the Greek letters when these variants are substantially different to each other” in terms of severity, immune evasion, or transmission, she says.

Read More: How to Stay Safe from COVID-19 During the 2022 Holiday Season
But some experts say variant names do have real-world implications for average people. Hotez points to the new bivalent boosters, which were formulated to target the BA.4 and BA.5 variants. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are descendants of BA.5, so the vaccines probably also provide some amount of protection against them, and that knowledge would perhaps provide extra motivation to get the new shots. But, in part because of their names, the average person likely doesn’t know that BQ.1 is related to BA.5, Hotez says.

T. Ryan Gregory, a professor of integrative biology at Canada’s University of Guelph, says the alphabet-soup names are important for scientists to know, because they communicate information about how the virus has evolved. But he thinks there should also be common names that the general public can use, just as there are scientific and common names for animal species. He’s even promoted (unofficial) nicknames for recent variants, calling BQ.1.1 “Cerberus,” BQ.1 “Typhon,” and XBB “Gryphon.”

If all the variants start to blend together in the public consciousness, people might not register the emergence of new strains that may be able to dodge immunity they’ve acquired from vaccinations or prior infections, Gregory says. A clearer understanding of circulating variants could also be important in health-care settings, since some monoclonal antibody therapies don’t work well against certain variants, he adds.

Van Kerkhove says the WHO’s Technical Advisory Group on SARS-CoV-2 Virus Evolution is working on a “more robust” method of assessing when a variant should get a new name, with a particular focus on immune evasion. The jump from Delta to Omicron was so dramatic that it was an easy call to give Omicron a new name, Van Kerkhove says. But now that the virus is mutating in subtler ways, it’s a more complicated decision. In late October, the advisory group voted against assigning new labels to XBB and BQ.1 because they are not sufficiently different from previous forms of Omicron.

For variants that don’t meet the WHO’s threshold for a new Greek letter, the agency could at least use a more understandable naming system, Hotez suggests—perhaps starting with Omicron, and then moving on to Omicron 1, Omicron 2, and so on. Van Kerkhove says the WHO has discussed doing so, but even that system comes with problems. There are about 300 Omicron sublineages currently under surveillance, she says, and “Omicron 300 sounds like a movie franchise.”

The public probably doesn’t need to know and discuss all of those variants, Gregory says. But for the strains that spread widely and account for a significant portion of infections, it’s worth having easily comprehensible names.

Right now, most people either feel like, “‘Wow, this is alphabet soup, and I can’t keep track,’ or ‘Well, it’s all Omicron,’” so it doesn’t matter when there’s a new variant, Gregory says. What the public is missing—and what it needs, he says—is a shared vocabulary that would help everyone understand the pandemic as it continues to evolve.

New Coronavirus News from 6 November 2022

COVID-19 world weekly cases down 18% but Japan, South Korea spiking [Gephardt Dailyk, ６ Nov 2022]

Nov. 6 (UPI) — The coronavirus situation is still easing worldwide with a weekly 18% cases and 23% deaths drop, though Asia is experiencing a surge in infections, especially Japan and South Korea, amid two new Omicron subvariants.

Like the past week, cases are rising significant in only Japan and South Korea over seven days among nations with at least 25,000 infections.

The seven-day world moving average for cases was 295,062, the lowest since late September 2020, according to Worldometers.info. In one week infections declined to 2,065,438 with the cumulative 637,695,929 so far Sunday. Cases on Saturday were 225,753, the lowest number since 207,137 Sept. 7, 2020, with last Sunday at 244,956. The last time cases were above 1 million was July 31.

The seven-day moving average for deaths was down to 1,158, the fewest since 1,073 March 21, 2020, 10 days after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, according to Worldometers.info. In one week deaths declined to 8,101 with the cumulative 6,605,464 so far Sunday.

Daily deaths worldwide dropped to 545 Sunday, the least since 424 March 14, 2020, with 1,050 last Sunday.

Some nations do not report data on weekends. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has gone to weekly updates.

The records were 3,847,809 cases on Jan. 21, during the height of the Omicron subvariant, and 16,890 deaths on Jan. 21, 2021, when the Delta subvariant was at its peak.

The World Health Organization has been concerned about Omicron sub-variants.

“Right now, we’re in a situation where we have more than 300 subvariants of Omicron that are in circulation and these subvariants are quite similar to each other,” Dr. Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead on COVID-19, said at a briefing last week. “It is confusing in terms of the subvariant names, we recognize that, but the names that are in use are the scientific names by the different groups who analyse these from a technical point of view.”

About 95% of the subvariants are of BA.5 and about 20% of those are BQ.1. And XBB, which is a recombinant of two BA.2 sublineages, accounts for about 1% of the sequences circulating worldwide.

He noted that “surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 has declined drastically around the world, which means testing has declined, sequencing has declined and without the ability to understand what is circulating, to share these viruses, to share the knowledge about these viruses, we’re not in a situation to assess them as rapidly and robustly as we would like.”

Amid the new variants, South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo said Friday the number of daily infections could reach up to 200,000 cases, but less than one-third of the daily record. The government has recently expanded booster shots against Omicron variants to all people aged over 18.

Japan, South Korea and Australia reported increases in both deaths and cases in the past week.

Japan posted the most weekly cases, 375,907 in a 38% increase and was seventh in deaths at 387, a 6% gain.

South Korea’s 297,276 infections were second in the world, with a 27% rise, and deaths were 223, a 42% increase in 12th.

Germany, which posted the most weekly cases last week, dropped to third at 252,641 in a 37% decrease, five weeks after a 60% gain, and the second-most deaths at 1,062, with no change two weeks after a 88% gain. Germany is the second-most deaths at 991, with a 7% gain and 88% rise two weeks ago.

The only other cases’ increase among nations with at least 25,000: Australia 18% at No. 9 38,875.

Decreases in the past week in descending order were Taiwan 16% at No. 4 243,770, United States 31% at No. 5 189,609, France 32% at No. 6 153,609, Italy 47% at No. 7 110,988, Russia 20% at No. 8 42,362, Cjhile 15% at No. 10 35,423, Hong Kong 12% at No. 11 33,945, Austria 21% at No. 12 33,975, Indonesia 60% at No. 13 29,725, Brazil 26% at No. 14 26,916, Malaysia 57% at No. 15 26,616.

Among nations reporting more than 100 deaths with increases in the past week: Taiwan 5% at No. 5 455, Indonesia 52% at No. 11 236, Chile 17% at No. 14 137, Australia 24% at No. 15 119, India 109% at No. 16 115.

Other decreases were United States 32% at No. 1 1,548, Britain 27% at No. 3 737, Russia 14% at No. 4 497, France 20% at No. 6 404, Italy 40% at No. 8 335, Brazil 42% at No. 9 276, Philippines 3% at No. 10 245, Spain 35% at No. 12 138.

In the past week, Asia reported 50.5% of the world’s cases, one week after 36.9% and it rose 14% for a cumulative 194,676,035, according to Worldometers.info. The continent has 59% percent of the world’s population.

Also increasing: Africa 19% for 12,679,708.

Decreases were Europe 40% for a world-high 235,084,861, North America 34% for 118,096,293, South America 16% for 64,498,584, Oceania 15% for 12,659,727.

Three continents reported an increase in deaths: Asia 17% for 1,490,576, Oceania 3% for 21,707, Africa 1% for 257,935.

Decreasing were North America 38% for 1,555,478, Europe 29% for a world-high 1,946,407, South America 23% for 1,333,346.

The United States leads with 1,098,221 fatalities and 99,639,207 infections. The nation also holds the world record for daily cases at 906,816 on Jan. 7. Brazil is second in deaths at 688,419, including 35 Saturday and fifth in cases at 34,892,134, including 1,891 most recently.

India is second in cases at 44,660,579, including 1,122 Sunday and third in deaths at 530,500 including 14 Sunday with single deaths reported in April and zero the last time on March 24, 2020.

India has the daily deaths record at 4,529 on May 18, 2021, with no adjustments from regions.
In the top 10 for deaths, Russia is fourth with 390,588 including 62 Sunday, Mexico is fifth with 330,415 and no weekend data, Peru sixth with 217,069 including seven Saturday, Britain seventh with 194,704, Italy eighth with 179,436, Indonesia ninth with 158,829 including 22 Sunday and France 10th with 157,277.

In the top 10 for cases, France is third with 36,946,904 including 26,840 Saturday, Germany fourth with 35,823,771, South Korea sixth with 25,838,239 including 36,675 Sunday, Britain seventh with 23,930,041, Italy eighth with 23,642,011, Japan ninth with 22,273,251 including 66,397 Sunday, Russia 10th with 22,674,944 including 4,566 Sunday.

In Japan, cases have been surging as restrictions ease. Japan’s seven-day moving case average is 53,701 compared with 26,325 Oct. 12 and under 20,000 in early July with the daily record 255,316 Aug. 18.

Japan’s spike is occurring during colder weather.

Atsuo Hamada, a Tokyo Medical University specially appointed professor in infectious diseases, said people tend to ventilate indoor spaces less often in cold weather and there is crowding in public spaces.

“We want people to get vaccinated for the omicron variant and influenza early while taking basic measures to prevent infections,” he told The Mainichi. He also urged people to wear masks in crowded spaces.

And like in other nations, there is the one-two punch of coronavirus and influenza.

Throughout the pandemic Japan has had a low deaths rate.

Japan has 375 deaths per million, which is 145th in the nation, with the world at 847.4 and Peru No. 1 at 6,376. In cases, Japan’s rate is 180,574 per million in 890th place with the world 81,810 and Austria the highest among large countries at 598,934 with France 563,117, Portugal 545,139 and Denmark 537,465. Japan’s population is 125 million.

For the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, Japan resumed regular international sea route travel, a ferry service connecting Fukuoka in southwest Japan with South Korea’s Busan.

South Korea cases’ seven-day average is 42,468, compared with 20,355 on Oct. 14, the lowest since mid-July. In late June it was around 7,000. The daily record was 621,328 on March 17.

China, where COVID-19 emerged, has reported 5,226 deaths. Before a spike in April, it was 4,636, which stayed at that number since early February 2021. On Sunday, China reported 588 cases with 5,659 on April 29. Those are confirmed cases with illness. Asymptomatic ones are reported separately in Mainland China.

On Saturday, China reported 4,420 new locally transmitted infections on Saturday, the National Health Commission said, the most since May 6.

The situation could become “more severe and complex” as the country entered the winter flu season, said Hu Xiang, an official with China’s National Health Commission said Saturday.

In China’s zero-Covid policy, most international visitors are barred from entering China and cities can be locked down.

“Practice has proved that our pandemic prevention and control strategy . . . [is] completely correct, and such measures are proven the most economical and effective,” Hu said.

The annual Beijing marathon took place on Sunday morning under strict Covid protocols, after being canceled the previous two years.

In the central city of Zhengzhou, Apple’s largest iPhone assembly factory Foxconn went to a lockdown Wednesday of the area after an outbreak. The plant employs 200,000 the plant and account for 85% if the iPhone assembly.

Hong Kong, like China, has adopted a “zero tolerance” for coronavirus with strong restrictions eased, including hotel quarantine for arrivals from other nations.

Hong Kong reported 18 deaths and 5,111 cases Saturday with the record 79,876 on March 3.

“The worst is behind us,” Hong Kong leader John Lee said at Wednesday’s summit, attended by more than 200 investors from 20 countries.

But a mask mandate remains in effect indoors and outdoors. And international visitors must take tests for seven straight days after arrival In Hong Kong, and for the first three days barred from restaurants, bars and gyms.

The government lifted flight bans with certain countries and shortened hotel quarantine in March.

In the United States, the CDC has classified 2% of counties, districts and territories with a “high” category level, compared with 20.1% “medium” and 77.5% “low.” In “high” locations, masks are urged indoors with areas in scattefred places in the United Stated.

In its weekly update Thursday, the CDC reported 273,110 cases one week after 260,830, the lowest since 226,498 April 13. The record was 5,553,528 Jan. 19.

And the deaths average fell to 2,504, the lowest since 2,406 July 6 and the record 23,375 Jan. 13, 2021.

“We’re still in the middle of this — it is not over,” White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Thursday on the Conversations on Health Care radio show. “Four hundred deaths per day is not an acceptable level. We want to get it much lower than that.”

BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 represent 27% of infections combined and BA.5 has declined to 50%, according to the CDC.

And hospitals could face a “negative trifecta” this winter from emerging Covid variants, resurgent flu and respiratory syncytial virus, Fauci said.

“It’s going to be very confounding and might even stress the hospital system, particularly for the pediatric population,” Fauci said.

New weekly hospitalizations in the United States for one week were 3,272, which is a 1% weekly decline. A total of 5,469,077 have been hospitalized with COVID-19 since its inception with a population of 332 million. The U.S. total reported Sunday was 27,181, which is 3.87% capacity, and far below the record 160,113 (20.6%) on Jan. 20, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.

Also Thursday in its weekly report, the CDC said the U.S. adult one-shot vaccination rate was 91.2% with completed primary service at 78.3% and updated booster doses 9.9%. The full population rates are 80.2% for one shot, 68.5% for completed primary and 8.4% updated booster 5 and older.

The CDC recently switched from a breakdown of one and two boosters to one with the updated bivalent booster.

On Friday, Pfizer and BioNTech said immune responses against BA.4/BA.5 subvariants were “substantially higher” in people who got its new bivalent booster compared with people who received the companies’ original Covid-19 vaccine. The new one became available in September.

The booster has four times higher levels of neutralizing antibody against the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 variants in people older than 55 compared with the original vaccine.

Fauci also recommended testing before going to social gatherings, especially where vulnerable people are.

“That is a very good way of making sure you don’t spread infections, so utilization of tests, wearing masks where appropriate and getting vaccinated,” he said.