New Coronavirus News from 26 Aug 2020a

Severity of COVID-19 cases may increase in second wave, scientist says [TASS, 26 Aug 2020]

According to the scientist, the novel coronavirus infection is likely to have three waves and it will be possible to return to the accustomed way of living only by the summer 2021

MOSCOW, August 26. /TASS/. The second wave of the coronavirus infection may cause a more severe course of the COVID-19 disease, among other things, due to the weakened immunity during self-isolation, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Center for Immunology and Molecular Biomedicine of the Moscow State University, professor Mikhail Paltsev said to the Telegram channel of the Russian anti-coronavirus internet hotline.

"There is no clear forecast on how the virus will behave yet, but I am confident that there will be a second wave and agree with the opinion on the severity of the illness, for one thing, because during the lengthy isolation people’s immunity has decreased. On the other hand, there is a sufficient number of people in the population who are not susceptible to the coronavirus, that is, they don’t get sick even if infected," the scientist said answering the question whether people who observed self-isolation and didn’t get sick in the spring, will have a more severe case of the disease in the fall.

According to the scientist, the novel coronavirus infection is likely to have three waves and it will be possible to return to the accustomed way of living only by the summer 2021.

The scientist added that it is possible to contract the coronavirus repeatedly. And there are patients with repeat infections both in France and in Russia, "although there are very few of them," he explained. "That said, it (the coronavirus) is actually mutating but in general only the protein receptors of its membrane are changing while the mutations that show that the coronavirus is becoming more aggressive haven’t been detected," he noted.

According to the latest statistics, over 24,000,000 people have been infected worldwide and more than 823,000 deaths have been reported. To date, 970,865 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Russia, with 786,150 patients having recovered from the disease. Russia’s latest data indicates 16,683 fatalities nationwide. Earlier, the Russian government set up an Internet hotline to keep the public updated on the coronavirus situation.

Film, TV series production suspended in S. Korea due to coronavirus resurgence [CGTN, 26 Aug 2020]

Entertainment companies, including Netflix, have suspended production of TV series and films in South Korea, as coronavirus cases in the country surge again.

Local enterprises, such as CJ ENM, JTBC, as well as broadcasters SBS, have all announced to reschedule their shooting plans for variety shows, television series and films, which might in turn affect broadcast timings. The shows affected by the rescheduling include “Running Man” and “Master in the House” by SBS, “Private Life” and “Run On” by JTBC, “Flower of Evil” by tvN and “Missing: The Other Side” by OCN.

CJ ENM said in an announcement that it has already negotiated with its production subsidiary company Studio Dragon, and decided to stop filming tvN and OCN’s dramas from August 24 to 31, out of concern for the safety of cast and crew.

According to Variety, Music channel Mnet’s weekly live show “M Countdown” will be suspended as well.

Meanwhile, Netflix, which has been cooperating with South Korean entertainment companies in productions, confirmed that all its shows in South Korea have been suspended for now.

“Complying with the health guidelines of the government and for the safety of our casts and crews, we have decided to pause all production schedules for now,” said Netflix in a statement.

South Korea has seen a new wave of COVID-19 outbreak in capital city Seoul since August.
Daily confirmed cases have surpassed 100 since August 13, and there have been more than 300 new cases for at least three days in a row.

Several South Korean actors were tested positive for the disease before productions were halted, including Seo Song-jong, Kim Won-hae and Heo Dong-won. KBS2’s show “Do Do Sol Sol La La Sol,” a show by KBS2, starring Heo before he was tested positive, also faces a delay.

COVID-19 Update: 320 cases in South Korea; China numbers remain low; India posts over 1.5 million new cases in August - The Moodie Davitt Report [The Moodie Davitt Report, 26 Aug 2020]

by Martin Moodie

26 August
Greater China
Another remarkable set of statistics from Greater China, and particularly from the Mainland where the COVID-19 crisis began. No locally transmitted cases once more and fewer than 20 in the recent hotspot of Hong Kong. Good news, if it can be sustained, for travel retail in China and perhaps beyond.

South Korea
Alas the news is far less positive from South Korea where locally transmitted cases continue at worrying levels.

Near 24 million cases, near 820,000 dead. The stark statistics that reflect a global pandemic.

25 August
Greater China

Once more, no locally transmitted cases in Mainland China. More good news as Hong Kong cases dip into single figures.

South Korea

But the news is far less encouraging from South Korea with another 280 cases reported and authorities warning the second wave could be worse than the first.

International

Well over 3,000 deaths globally since our report yesterday and almost 214,00 new cases. Colombia alone reported 10,549 new infections and is now the eighth-worst-hit country. Brazil, which has felt the terrible brunt of the disease, recorded 17,078 new cases.

24 August
Greater China

No locally transmitted cases across the Mainland for seven days running, while the Hong Kong situation continues to ease.

South Korea

The surge in locally transmitted cases in the Republic continues, most of them in the Greater Seoul area.

International

The pandemic continues to rage with over 23 million cases reported and more than 800,000 deaths.

23 August

Today we preface our usual statistical round-up globally and of the key China and South Korea travel retail markets with some comparitive analysis from six months ago, early in the COVID-19 crisis. The comparison is instructive in evaluating how different countries have been affected – and how they have responded – since. The numbers also help paint a picture of where the best prospects for travel retail recovery lie.

On 23 February, China recorded 409 new daily infections, 398 of them in the coronavirus epicentre of Hubei province. That day there were 150 deaths nationwide, all but one in Hubei.

But those figures, though high, were already a sharp improvement on those of a week earlier (see table). Swift action by the authorities, a total lockdown of the Hubei capital of Wuhan, and a great sense of civic responsibility ever since have driven a remarkable turnaround across not just the Mainland but all of Greater China.

How things stood in China on 23 February as the country was mired in a health crisis

When new waves have emerged, such as those in Beijing, the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region and Hong Kong, they have been dealt with swiftly (the situation in Hong Kong, which saw a worrying spike over recent weeks, continues to improve rapidly).

Look at today’s numbers (below) reported by The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. No locally transmitted cases across the Mainland for six days running. No cases in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region (there were 112 as recently as 30 July and the authorities were deeply concerned) and just 26 in Hong Kong. The Mainland authorities claim there has not been a COVID-19 death in four months.

Now look at similar comparisons from Johns Hopkins University in the US, which tracked the pandemic from early on. Our screengrab from 24 February shows that there had been 79,434 cases globally, of which 77,150 were in China with South Korea the next-worst affected nation. Italy was starting to be of concern with 157 cases. The US had posted just 35 cases and the UK just 13.

Roll on six awful months. The figures reveal a tale that few western politicians or media have told. The US now ranks number one in total case numbers and deaths with counts of 5,668,245 and 176,362, respectively. The UK ranks fifth in the death toll with 41,509 and 13th in total infections with 326,595 (a position made to look moderately better by the recent surge in cases across Central and South America, India, Russia and South Africa).

Six months on and the numbers tell the terrible tale of a global pandemic. Today, China and South Korea do not even appear among the most-affected countries.

China, in vivid contrast, now ranks a lowly 33rd in case numbers (89,654) and 27th in deaths (4,711), despite a population of 1.4 billion. South Korea comes in at 75th and 76th places, respectively, with 17,399 infections and 309 deaths.

These are important statistics from both a medical and also travel retail perspective. From relatively early on in this crisis it seemed likely that Chinese domestic travel would be one of the first sectors to recover, a factor of crucial industry importance given the existence of offshore duty free in Hainan province. And so it has proved, with a combination of enhanced allowances and categories, ecommerce and other business/consumer-friendly policies driving an extraordinary revival of the offshore business – currently travel retail’s only global hotspot of scale.

So where else do we look for pockets of growth in the relative near term? Given the importance of Chinese shoppers to travel retail, we should focus on where any outbound visitors will want to travel, where they will be allowed to travel, and (importantly in the longer term) where they will be welcomed. Last week the Singaporean government announced that for travellers from Macao and Mainland China the SHN (stay at home notice) will be shortened from 14 to seven days, effective 1 September. They will also be allowed to serve their SHN at their place of residence, and undergo a COVID-19 test at the end of (rather than during) their SHN.

While Singapore is still battling to eradicate its latest wave (it reported 87 new cases today, taking its total to 56,353), it seems likely to be among the earliest countries to benefit from greater Chinese outbound travel. Geographically, South Korea and Japan would be expected to join that group but both countries are witnessing worrying new waves.

New Zealand with its enviable performance throughout this pandemic could join that list, though its combination of geographic isolation and a government determination to keep the virus outside national shores means that any travel bubble with China is likely to be some way off.

Thailand and Vietnam, both hugely popular with Chinese travellers, will certainly be prime candidates for any early revival. Thailand has recorded an extraordinarily low 3,395 COVID-19 cases since the crisis began in January and just 58 deaths. But its government is taking an understandably ultra-cautious approach to opening its borders with most foreign nationals not allowed to enter the country until 31 August. What happens then will be critical to the fortunes of travel retail stakeholders through the balance of the annus horribilis that is 2020.

And Vietnam? Like New Zealand and Thailand it had enjoyed a remarkably low infection rate until a recent surge. Even so, as of today Vietnam had confirmed just 1,014 cases of COVID-19 with 27 deaths. Since 22 March, the country’s borders have been closed to foreign travellers. Only Vietnamese nationals, foreigners on diplomatic or official business, and highly skilled workers are allowed to enter the country. Will the combination of both countries’ low infection rates and the sheer economic importance of allowing Chinese visitors into the country change that on a ‘bubble’ basis?

The Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of Macau and Hong Kong, Malaysia (9,267 cases) and Cambodia (just 273) are the other best prospects for increased Chinese travel outside the Mainland. The Macau authorities have controlled the virus effectively (only 46 cases, all cured), prompting the authorities to this month resume issuing visas under the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS), which has led to an imminent spike in visitor numbers. With the IVS scheme likely to be widened China-wide, travel retailers in the SAR are cautiously optimistic of a late-year flourish to brighten a difficult year.

With many countries in Europe experiencing new waves (and the worry of a winter spike ahead); the US in turmoil; and much of Central and South America (Uruguay a notable exception) reeling, it’s clear that with the likely phased exceptions of certain Middle East, transit-driven locations such as the UAE and Qatar, travel retail’s best bets for near- and mid-term recovery lie intra-Asia.

22 August
Greater China

Three days in a row of no locally transmitted cases in Mainland China. And once again Hong Kong reports encouragingly low numbers of new infections.

South Korea

Numbers keep climbing in South Korea with 332 new cases reported, 315 of them locally transmitted.

International

The global case total nears 23 million and deaths from COVID-19 approach 800,000.

21 August

Greater China

More impressive statistics from the Mainland with no new locally transmitted cases for the second day running in a country of 1.34 billion people. The situation in Hong Kong improves further with just 18 new cases.

International

India’s death and case tallies continue to rise fast, while the US and Brazil enjoy the unwanted status of topping both charts. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated global and country by country infection and death toll.

South Korea

That is a very ugly number indeed from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as 324 new cases are reported, 315 of them locally transmitted; Click to enlarge.

20 August

Greater China

Whichever way you look at it, these are extraordinary statistics with not a single new locally transmitted case in Mainland China and just seven imported cases. Chinese health officials say that no patients hospitalised due to COVID-19 in China have died in “almost four months”. The situation in Hong Kong continues to improve with just 26 new cases.

South Korea

The latest outbreak in South Korea continues to cause alarm, with 288 new cases reported, 276 of them locally transmitted.

International

The US reported 46,436 new coronavirus cases and 1,356 new deaths on Wednesday. The recent New Zealand outbreak seems under control with just five new cases reported. Source: Johns Hopkins University.

19 August

New Zealand

New Zealand online media Stuff reports six new cases countrywide. That’s right… six. Those infections bring the total number of cases linked to the recent Auckland community cluster to 75. That outbreak, first reported on 11 August, was described by US President Donald Trump on Monday as “terrible”.

“Even New Zealand, did you see what’s going on in New Zealand? They beat it, they beat it. It was like front page, they beat it, because they wanted to show me something,” Trump told media. “The problem is, big surge in New Zealand … it’s terrible. So you know, we don’t want that.”

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern responded tersely, “I don’t think there’s any comparison between New Zealand’s current cluster and the tens of thousands of cases that are being seen daily in the United States.”

On the same day of Trump’s comments, the US reported tens of thousands of cases. As of today, the US has recorded 5,482,370 cases and 171,799 deaths – 24.85% and 22.04% of the global total, respectively. New Zealand has a death rate of just 4 people per million population and 330 cases per million, according to Worldometer. The US has a death rate of 529 per million people and 17,074 cases per million. Now that’s terrible.

South Korea

Grim news from the Republic as The Korea Herald reports 297 new COVID-19 cases, the largest daily increase since early March. Of the 283 locally transmitted cases, most were in the Greater Seoul area, 150 in Seoul and 94 in the surrounding Gyeonggi Province.

Greater China

Remarkable numbers out of Greater China with just 17 new cases reported. No new infections recorded in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, while the situation in Hong Kong continues to improve.

International

Global case numbers pass 22 million and the death toll nears 780,000. Source: Johns Hopkins University.

18 August

Greater China

More good news from the Mainland where exactly 22 new cases were reported for the second consecutive day. The tough measures taken in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region to curb the recent spike appear to have worked. Hong Kong, hard hit of late, sees new infections below 50.

South Korea

These are deeply worrying times again in the Republic. The Korea Herald reports that 246 more cases were reported this morning. Of the 235 locally transmitted cases, Seoul accounted for 131, while in nearby Gyeonggi Province and Incheon, 52 and 18 new cases were found, respectively. The tally of new cases has been in triple digits figures for five straight days.

This chart breaks down locally transmitted cases (235) by area and also shows imported cases (11).

International

The pandemic surges on, with total case numbers now approaching 22 million and the death toll nearing 775,000. Source: Johns Hopkins University.

17 August

Greater China

The misery of February, when the COVID-19 crisis was raging in Wuhan, seems a long way off as Mainland China reports just 22 new cases, all imported. Encouragingly also, no new infections were reported in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, scene of a recent alarming spike. Hong Kong remains the key concern, though numbers still sit well below 100.

South Korea

However, the numbers in South Korea are a lot less encouraging, with 188 new daily cases reported, most of them linked to church gatherings.

International

16 August
South Korea

The Korea Herald reports an alarming surge in infections, with the daily case tally passing 200 for the first time in five months, due mainly to a spike in infections in the greater Seoul area.

Greater China

In Greater China, though, the numbers keep coming down, with new infections falling in Hong Kong and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region.

International

Global cases race past 21 million with over 770,000 deaths.

15 August

COVID-19 is on the rise again in South Korea with 166 new cases reported, 139 of them locally transmitted in Seoul or the surrounding province Gyeonggi.

However, the situation in Greater China is much more encouraging, including in the recent hotspot of Hong Kong.

14 August

South Korea

Big cause for concern in the Republic as 103 new cases are reported, 85 of them locally transmitted.

Greater China

International

New Zealand

Auckland will remain in at lockdown level 3 for another 12 days, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has just announced at a press conference. There are 12 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 and one probable infection, she said. Prior to this week’s outbreak, the country had gone more than 100 days without a locally transmitted case.

13 August

Greater China

Just eight indigenous cases across Mainland China plus a further 11 imported. Hong Kong remains a concern though with a further 62 new cases reported.

New Zealand

New Zealand internet media Stuff reported that 13 new community cases have been reported today, all in the nation’s biggest city Auckland and each one linked to the four initial locally transmitted cases reported Tuesday. Auckland is at alert level 3 until midnight Friday with the rest of the country at alert level 2. Until Tuesday’s announcement, the country had not reported a single community case in over 100 days.

International

Latest numbers from Johns Hopkins University show that the US and Brazil account for over 36% of global fatalities.

South Korea

25 cases are reported in the capital, Seoul, over half of the 47 local transmissions. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

12 August

New Zealand

The country is reeling from news of the first community transmissions in over 100 days.

Auckland, New Zealand’s biggest city and site of the outbreak, has been placed back into maximum Level 3 lockdown for three days from midday today in an attempt to stop the spread. The rest of the country will also be put back into Level 2 for three days.

It was revealed late this afternoon that there are four new probable cases of community transmission linked to the four initial cases confirmed on Tuesday night.

Watching the breaking news from New Zealand from The Moodie Davitt Report Interim Hong Kong Bureau. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern delivered the news of the Auckland lockdown at a morning press conference broadcast nationwide.

Greater China

Rare good news amid a raging pandemic as just 33 new cases are reported in Hong Kong and only nine in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, both recent hot spots.

South Korea

54 new cases are reported in the Republic, 35 of them locally transmitted. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

International

Latest numbers from Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated global and country by country infection and death toll.

North Korea Facing Perfect Storm of Economic Stressors [Heritage.org, 26 Aug 2020]

by Bruce Klingner

SUMMARY

North Korea is concurrently suffering from international sanctions, self-imposed trade restrictions to stave off the coronavirus, and devastating monsoon rains damaging the agricultural heartland. In July 2020, Pyongyang finally admitted there were COVID-19 cases in the country, but cited foreigners as its cause. Kim Jong-un rejects foreign assistance, undermining international efforts to use engagement to influence regime behavior. Despite this, the Trump Administration, in coordination with allies South Korea and Japan, should continue to offer humanitarian aid to address coronavirus health problems and flood damage. However, large-scale provision of food or economic development assistance should be contingent on strict monitoring requirements for the former, and progress in denuclearization negotiations for the latter.

North Korea is concurrently suffering from severe economic calamities due to international sanctions, self-imposed trade restrictions to stave off the coronavirus, and devastating monsoon rains damaging the agricultural heartland. In July, Pyongyang finally admitted there were COVID-19 cases in the country, but cited foreigners as its cause, creating a scapegoat to divert blame from the regime.

Kim Jong-un rejects foreign assistance, undermining international efforts to use engagement to influence regime behavior. Despite this, the Trump Administration, in coordination with allies South Korea and Japan, should continue to offer humanitarian aid to address coronavirus health problems and flood damage. However, large-scale provision of food or economic aid should be contingent on strict monitoring requirements for the former, and progress in denuclearization negotiations for the latter.

Admitting the Obvious. In late July, Kim Jong-un convened an emergency meeting of the Politburo to respond to the “vicious virus” having entered the country despite the regime’s “intense preventive anti-epidemic measures.”1

“Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Convenes Emergency Enlarged Meeting of Political Bureau of WPK Central Committee,” KCNA Watch, July 26, 2020,
https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1595712926-639881246/supreme-leader-kim-jong-un-convenes-emergency-enlarged-meeting-of-political-bureau-of-wpk-central-committee/ (accessed August 18, 2020).

The regime blamed a North Korean defector who returned to North Korea illegally after reportedly contracting the disease in South Korea. Pyongyang’s previous claims that there were no COVID-19 cases in the country had been dismissed by the international community.

Kim declared a state of emergency and ordered a lockdown of the border city of Kaesong to contain any outbreak, and directed the country to shift from “the state emergency anti-epidemic system to the maximum emergency system.” The regime blocked off other cities, restricted travel into Pyongyang as well as between provinces, and imposed quarantines on anyone who had visited Kaesong.2

Sewon Kim, “North Korea Isolates Kaesong Residents in Pyongyang on Coronavirus Fears,” Radio Free Asia, August 4, 2020, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/kaesong-08042020202927.html (accessed August 18, 2020).

North Korea removed the lockdown on Kaesong by mid-August.

Kim Jong-un declared that emergency quarantine procedures were critical for preventing an “unimaginable and irretrievable crisis.”3

“N.K.’s Paper Stresses Antivirus Efforts at Major Gateways for Trade,” Yonhap, July 15, 2020, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200715003000325 (accessed August 18, 2020).

North Korea is highly vulnerable to a major COVID-19 outbreak due to its emaciated population, rudimentary health care system, and lack of medical supplies including COVID test kits.

Floods Add to Food and Economic Woes. North Korea has also suffered severe flood damage, including in several important rice-producing provinces. Pyongyang reported that nearly 17,000 homes and 630 public facilities were damaged or destroyed, and that nearly 100,000 acres of rice fields were flooded.4

Choi Si-young, “Flood-Battered NK Rules Out Outside Aid,” The Korea Herald, August 14, 2020, http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200814000628 (accessed August 18, 2020).

A source in North Korea commented that 42 percent of terraced fields and farmland near rivers in North Hamgyong Province had been either washed away or flooded, and that 30 percent of farmland in South Hamgyong Province had been flooded. Other farmland in coastal areas had been damaged by salt water.5

Ha Yoon Ah, “N. Korea Moves To Cleanup Monsoon Damage Across Grain-Producing Regions,” Daily NK, August 12, 2020, https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korea-moves-cleanup-monsoon-damage-across-grain-producing-regions/ (accessed August 18, 2020).

In an indication of the severity of the situation, Kim Jong-un ordered distribution of grain from his own personal reserves. Thae Yong-ho, a senior North Korean defector and now South Korean National Assembly Member, stated during a Heritage Foundation webinar that Kim’s grain reserve is a special stockpile that is to be used only in war or during major calamities. He assessed the regime faced a “very, very difficult” food situation.6

“What Is the Potential for North Korea Provocation or a U.S. Summit?” The Heritage Foundation, online event, August 12, 2020, https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/virtual-event-what-the-potential-north-korea-provocation-or-us-summit (accessed August 18, 2020).

The U.S. Department of Agriculture determined that North Korea is suffering from severe malnutrition and calculated that nearly 60 percent of North Korea’s population is facing food insecurity (not enough food to eat) or suffers from uncertain access to food.7

“USDA: 60% of North Koreans Are Food Insecure,” The Korea Times, August 13, 2020, https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/08/103_294370.html (accessed August 18, 2020).

Last year, the U.N. estimated that around 10.1 million North Koreans suffered “severe food shortages” after suffering “the worst harvest in 10 years.”8

“Worst Harvest in 10 Years for North Korea,” All About Feed, May 8, 2019, https://www.allaboutfeed.net/Raw-Materials/Articles/2019/5/Worst-harvest-in-10-years-for-North-Korea-425068E/#:~:text=Worst%20harvest%20in%2010%20years%20for%20North%20Korea,enough%20food%20to%20last%20until%20the%20next%20harvest. (accessed August 18, 2020).

The regime ordered people to conserve food amidst rising fears of a famine. Since April, the regime has been unable to provide food rations in Pyongyang and people are said to be starving even in the capital.9

Kim Myong-song, “Famine Fears as N.Korea Orders People to Conserve Food,” Chosun Ilbo, July 13, 2020, http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2020/07/13/2020071301897.html (accessed August 18, 2020).

The autumn harvest is the key source of the country’s food supply for the year. Damage to the crops, as has occurred, could have detrimental impact on the country’s food situation. Some experts speculate the situation could be similar to the great famine in the 1990s.

Deteriorating Economic Conditions. North Korea’s economy has been decimated by the combined impact of trade-restricting sanctions, the regime’s strong domestic COVID-19 isolation measures that cut off the country from both legal and covert foreign supply chains, and floods impacting the already fragile food situation.

At the initial outbreak of COVID-19, North Korea rapidly implemented extensive quarantine measures, including closing its borders, suspending all travel into and out of the country, and imposing a 10-day quarantine on all inbound cargo.

The regime cut itself off from China, which accounts for 90 percent of North Korea’s foreign trade. The Korea Institute for National Unification assessed that, in the first half of 2020, North Korea’s imports from China decreased 67 percent from the same period last year, while exports to China fell by 75 percent.10

“N.K. Economy Struggling as Trade with China Sharply Drops in H1 Amid Coronavirus: Think Tank,” Yonhap, August 13, 2020, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200813009300325 (accessed August 18, 2020).

Research firm Fitch Solutions expects North Korea’s economy to contract by at least 8.5 percent in 2020.11

William Gallo, “Hit by Historic Monsoon, N. Korea Warns of More Floods,” Voice of America, August 11, 2020, https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/hit-historic-monsoon-n-korea-warns-more-floods (accessed August 18, 2020).

Pyongyang’s isolation measures indirectly enhanced enforcement of U.N. economic sanctions. Last December, all North Korean workers overseas had to return to the country, depriving the regime of an estimated $500 million to $1 billion a year.12

Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Exports Forced Laborers for Profit, Rights Groups Say,” The New York Times, February 20, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/world/asia/north-koreans-toil-in-slavelike-conditions-abroad-rights-groups-say.html (accessed August 18, 2020).

The regime had sought to compensate by acquiring critically needed foreign currency through foreign tourism, including flagship tourist resort projects overseen by Kim Jong-un. But COVID-19 isolation measures shut down all resorts and tourist operations.

Rejecting Foreign Aid. Despite the dire economic and food situation, Kim Jong-un rejected foreign flood assistance due to concerns over COVID-19 risk. Instead, North Korea indicated that it would shut its borders tighter.13

“N.K. Leader Warns Against Accepting Outside Flood Aid Due to Virus Risk,” Yonhap, August 14, 2020, https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200814001652325?section=nk/nk (accessed August 18, 2020).

The U.N., South Korea, and other nations have indicated a willingness to provide aid. In March, Pyongyang rejected President Trump’s offer of COVID-19 humanitarian assistance. Pyongyang has been particularly dismissive of attempts by Seoul to provide food or assistance despite the Moon Jae-in administration’s increasingly desperate attempts at improving inter-Korean relations. Pyongyang rebuffed South Korea’s offer of $11 million in food.

What Washington Should Do

Despite North Korea’s repeated rejections of diplomatic dialogue and offers of humanitarian aid, the United States should:
• Continue to offer medical and humanitarian aid to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 and respond to devastating flood damage. This assistance could be a combination of unilateral U.S. aid and in conjunction with international efforts of other nations and non-government organizations.
• Support U.N. sanctions exemptions for items benefiting the North Korean populace. There are no U.N. or U.S. sanctions on food, medicine, or humanitarian assistance. All U.N. resolutions and U.S. laws have language emphasizing that any punitive measures do not cover those items.
Washington should urge the U.N. sanctions committee to expeditiously process requests for sanctions exemptions for any humanitarian assistance that was inadvertently blocked.
• Work with U.N. nations to clarify sanctions exemption language. Some sanctions on North Korea prohibit certain high-tech equipment that could potentially be of use to the nuclear and missile program and have unintentionally hindered some humanitarian assistance. The U.N. sanctions committee should make efforts to revise sanctions language to simplify approval of shipments of humanitarian items.
• Maintain sanctions applicable to prohibited WMD programs. While humanitarian assistance for immediate problems should not be constrained, Washington should resist recommendations to water down U.N. and U.S. sanctions in hopes of inducing progress in denuclearization negotiations. Those sanctions should remain until the trigger behavior has ceased.
• Condition economic redevelopment assistance on progress on denuclearization talks.
Washington should continue to privately counsel South Korea not to offer massive economic benefits to North Korea in hopes of improving inter-Korean relations. The international community should maintain pressure on the regime until it ceases its defiance of U.N. resolutions.

Conclusion

There has long been debate over the degree to which humanitarian disaster response assistance should be distinguished from large-scale food aid and economic development programs. The U.S. and other nations should be willing to provide immediate aid to ameliorate natural disasters that impact the populace while concurrently refraining from large-scale assistance that benefits the regime’s prioritization of the military over the needs of its citizens.

N. Korean leader calls for readiness against virus, typhoon [WWMT-TV, 26 Aug 2020]

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — In a rare display of urgency, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un held his third high-level political conference in as many weeks, where he raised alarm about the nation’s coronavirus response and a typhoon forecast to hit the country early Thursday.

During an enlarged meeting of the Politburo of the ruling Workers’ Party on Tuesday, Kim lamented unspecified “defects” and “shortcomings” in the country’s’ anti-virus campaign and urged that they be corrected swiftly, according to the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said Wednesday.

Kim also called thorough preparations to minimize damage from Typhoon Bavi, which comes weeks after torrential rains caused flooding and massive damage to homes and crops, inflicting further pain to an economy ravaged by U.S.-led sanctions over its nuclear weapons and border closures amid the pandemic.

Kim set tasks for the party and public services at every level, "saying that to thoroughly prevent the casualties by the typhoon and minimize the damage to crops is important work which can never be neglected even a moment,” KCNA paraphrased the leader as saying.

Typhoon Bavi as of Wednesday morning was near the South Korean island of Jeju and was on course to hit the northwest coast of the Korean Peninsula around daybreak Thursday morning.
South Korea's weather agency said it had a maximum wind speed of 155 kilometers per hour (96 mph) and was forecast as one of the strongest to hit the peninsula this year.

In another ruling party meeting last week, Kim admitted the country's economy has not improved as he had hoped. The Workers' Party cited "internal and external situations" as hurting the country's economic development, likely referring to U.S.-led sanctions over North Korea's nuclear program, the recent flooding and the efforts of closing the country's borders and other steps taken during the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the meeting last week, the ruling party scheduled a rare congress in January to set development goals for the next five years.

Experts say the coronavirus derailed some of Kim’s major economic goals after North Korea imposed a lockdown that significantly reduced trade with China — its major ally and economic lifeline — and likely hampered its ability to mobilize its workforce.

The North has yet to confirm a single-case of COVID-19, but outsiders have widely doubted its virus-free claim. In late July, Kim ordered a lockdown of Kaesong, a city near the border with South Korea after the North reported it found a person with COVID-19 symptoms. It later told the World Health Organization the person’s test results were inconclusive.

South Korea orders striking doctors back to work amid surge in coronavirus cases [Reuters, 26 Aug 2020]

By Sangmi Cha & Josh Smith

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea ordered doctors in the Seoul area to return to work on Wednesday as they began a three-day strike in protest of several government proposals, including one to boost the number of doctors to deal with health crises like the coronavirus.

Trainee doctors have been staging ongoing walkouts, and thousands of additional doctors were due to stage a three-day strike starting on Wednesday.

The strikes come as South Korea battles one of its worst outbreaks of the coronavirus, with 320 new cases reported in the 24 hours to midnight Tuesday, the latest in more than a week and a half of triple-digit increases.

The walkouts on Wednesday forced South Korea’s five major general hospitals to limit their hours and delay scheduled surgeries, Yonhap news agency reported.

Earlier in the week, the doctors reached an agreement with the government to continue to handle coronavirus patients, but failed to find a compromise on the broader issues.

“The government now has no choice but to take necessary legal actions such as an order to open business to not put the citizens’ lives and safety in danger,” Health Minister Park Neung-hoo said in a briefing. “We urge all trainee and fellow doctors to immediately return to work.”

He said the Korean Medical Association (KMA) and the Korean Intern Resident Association (KIRA) had rejected several of the government’s offers.

In a statement, KMA said the medical community was always open to all possibilities in talks with the government, and that the doctors did not want to have to strike.

“We sincerely do want to return,” the statement said. “We ask you citizens to listen to our voice so that we can meet our patients as soon as possible.”

KMA and KIRA members have said they oppose government plans to boost the number of medical students over several years, establish public medical schools, allow government insurance to cover more oriental medicine, and introduce more telemedicine options.

The government said its goal to increase the number of medical students by 4,000 over the next 10 years is necessary to better prepare for public health crises like the coronavirus pandemic.

Student doctors, however, said the plan would unnecessarily flood an already competitive market, and that the extra funding would be better spent improving the salaries of existing trainees, which would encourage them to move out of Seoul to rural areas where more health professionals are needed.

S Korea doctors ordered off strike on coronavirus jump: Live news [Al Jazeera English, 26 Aug 2020]

by Kate Mayberry & Saba Aziz

S Korea reports 320 new cases; Cambridge aims to start vaccine trial soon; Victoria reports second deadliest day.
• Doctors in South Korea have been ordered to return to work because of the continued surge in coronavirus cases, after they began a three-day strike on Wednesday over government plans to train more medical students.
• The University of Cambridge is due to start vaccine trials in the coming months after securing government funding.
• The Australian state of Victoria has reported its second-deadliest day of the pandemic with 24 deaths in the past 24 hours. Nearly 64 percent of deaths have taken place in homes for the elderly.
• More than 23.8 million people around the world have been diagnosed with the coronavirus, and 15.4 million have recovered. More than 817,000 have died, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Here are the latest updates:
Wednesday, August 26
06:45 GMT - France's 2nd wave could come in November: gov't advisor
A second wave of the coronavirus pandemic could hit France in November, a government advisor told local media, as the city of Marseille tightened restrictions to fight the outbreak.

Authorities in Marseille said late on Tuesday that bars and restaurants would have shorter opening times, and they also broadened mandatory mask-wearing in the southern port city between August 26 and September 30.

"There are fears of a second wave in November," Professor Jean-François Delfraissy, who heads the scientific council that advises the government on the pandemic, told France 2 television on Wednesday.

06:30 GMT - Kazakhstan secures supplies of Russia's vaccine

Kazakhstan has signed a deal to get supplies of Russia's first potential COVID-19 vaccine once clinical trials are complete, the Central Asian nation's government said.

The government did not say how many doses of the vaccine it planned to buy and at what price. It said the vaccine would be made available to at-risk Kazakh citizens free of charge.

The vaccine, called "Sputnik V" in homage to the world's first satellite launched by the Soviet Union, has been hailed as safe and effective by Russian authorities and scientists following two months of small-scale human trials. But Western experts have been more sceptical.
Hello, this is Saba Aziz in Doha, taking over from my colleague Kate Mayberry in Kuala Lumpur
________________________________________

05:10 GMT - Myanmar reports biggest daily rise in cases

Myanmar has reported 70 new cases of the novel coronavirus, its biggest daily jump since the start of the pandemic.

The health ministry did not say where the new cases were found.

Most recent cases have been in Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine, the western state where there has been fighting between the military and rebels and where the Rohingya were driven from their homes in a brutal army crackdown three years ago.

A lockdown and curfew has been imposed in the city.

The Myanmar Red Cross has been working in the area since March to help people deal with a potential outbreak.

04:40 GMT - S Korean doctors defy government order

It seems tens of thousands of doctors have gone ahead with a full-scale nationwide strike, defying the government's return-to-work order.

They are angry about planned reforms to medical training, but the strike comes as the country grapples with a resurgence of coronavirus cases.

The three-day strike is organised by the Korean Medical Association (KMA), which has some 130,000 members, including interns and resident doctors at general hospitals and practitioners at neighbourhood clinics.

You can read more on the story here.

04:20 GMT - Australian antibody therapy aims for early 2021 trial
Researchers in Australia working on a coronavirus antibody therapy say they hope to start human trials in early 2021.

Wai-Hong Tam, a researcher at the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute in Melbourne, told the Reuters news agency the team has made good progress in identifying the most potent antibodies to neutralise the spike protein in the virus and stop it from getting into human cells.

Tam says antibody therapies would be most useful for older people and those with weakened immune systems.

03:50 GMT - Australia boosts defence spending in latest stimulus
Australia will boost defence spending by one billion Australian dollars ($716.80m) in the government's latest attempt to help the country's coronavirus-hit economy.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the money will be used to upgrade military facilities and offer additional paid employment to some 27,000 reservists.

Many of the facilities earmarked for improvement are in areas ravaged by fire earlier this year.

Australia could slip into recession for the first time in 30 years because of the pandemic.

02:20 GMT - South Korea's striking doctors ordered back to work

Doctors in South Korea have been ordered back to work after they began a three-day strike on Wednesday, and the number of new coronavirus cases jumped above 300.

Trainee doctors and other medics have been staging walkouts in recent weeks, but a full-scale strike by members of the profession forced the country's five major general hospitals to limit hours and postpone scheduled surgeries.

"The government has no choice but to take necessary legal actions such as an order to open business to not put citizens' lives and safety in danger," Health Minister Park Neung-hoo told journalists. "We urge all trainee and fellow doctors to immediately return to work."

Doctors' associations are opposed to government reforms that would include training more medical students, opening more public medical schools, and broadening telemedicine options.

They say the money would be spent on improving the pay and conditions of existing trainees so they would be willing to work outside Seoul.

The country reported 320 new cases on Wednesday, with nearly 20 percent of cases in the past two weeks coming from unknown sources, according to Yonhap.

01:30 GMT - Malaysian minister to be questioned over failure to follow mandatory quarantine

Malaysia's Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Mohd Khairuddin Aman Razali is expected to be questioned by police on Wednesday after he failed to comply with a mandatory two-week quarantine when returning from a business trip to Turkey.

Mohd Khairuddin has been fined 1,000 ringgit ($240) for failing to go into quarantine after he returned from the trip on July 7.

Malaysians have been infuriated not only by his failure to comply with the quarantine rules, but also that he was allowed to travel overseas at a time when Malaysians are barred from leaving the country.

A man who returned from India in July and failed to comply with his quarantine was jailed for five months and fined 12,000 ringgit ($2,880), while a 72-year-old woman who had lunch out in breach of quarantine orders was jailed for a day and fined 8,000 ringgit ($1,920).

00:30 GMT - Latest data from Mexico, China

Mexico and China have just released their latest data on coronavirus.
Mexico has confirmed 4,916 new cases of the disease and 650 more deaths, bringing its totals to 568,621 cases and 61,450 deaths.

China, meanwhile, has reported 15 new cases in the mainland - all of them in people returned from overseas. The mainland has not confirmed a domestically transmitted case in 10 days. It also had 14 new asymptomatic cases, which are not included in confirmed cases. The death toll remains unchanged at 4,634.

23:30 GMT (Tuesday) - North Korea's Kim calls for enhanced prevention efforts

Kim Jong Un has told North Korea to step up prevention efforts against the coronavirus.

State news agency KCNA says a politburo meeting "assessed some defects in the state emergency anti-epidemic work for checking the inroads of the malignant virus".

North Korea has not reported any confirmed cases of the virus, but imposed a strict lockdown in the city of Kaesong after a man there showed symptoms of the disease. Later tests were inconclusive, according to the WHO.

23:05 GMT (Tuesday) - Cambridge to start vaccine trials in the autumn

The University of Cambridge said it will start clinical trials of a possible coronavirus vaccine in the UK's autumn (the months of September to December) after getting funding of 1.9 million pounds ($2.5m) from the UK government.

The scientists working on the vaccine - called DIOS-CoVax2 - are using genetic sequences of all known coronaviruses to hone an immune response and reduce potential side effects.

"We're looking for chinks in its armour, crucial pieces of the virus that we can use to construct the vaccine to direct the immune response in the right direction," said Jonathan Heeney, head of the Laboratory of Viral Zoonotics at the university.

There are already 30 vaccines in human trials.

23:00 GMT (Tuesday) - Victoria reports 149 new cases, 24 deaths in past 24 hours

Australia's southern state of Victoria has reported its second-deadliest day of the pandemic with 24 deaths and 149 new cases of coronavirus in the past 24 hours.

Melbourne, the state's capital and the second-biggest city in Australia, is midway through a six-week lockdown and curfew as it battles a resurgence of the disease.

Almost 64 percent of deaths have been among elderly people living in nursing homes.
----

Hello and welcome to Al Jazeera's continuing coverage of the coronavirus pandemic. I'm Kate Mayberry in Kuala Lumpur.

Covid-19 superspreading event in Boston may have led to 20,000 cases, researcher says [CNN, 26 Aug 2020]

by Jacqueline Howard and Carma Hassan

(CNN)One superspreading event may be connected to about 20,000 Covid-19 cases in the Boston area, a researcher said on Tuesday.

That event, a biotech conference attended by 200 people in late February, is now well known as a source of Covid-19 spread very early on in the pandemic.

"Ultimately, more than 90 cases were diagnosed in people associated with this conference or their contacts, raising suspicion that a superspreading event had occurred there," the researchers wrote in their study.

Superspreading occurs when one or a few infected people cause a cascade of transmissions of an infectious disease.

The new study -- which has not yet been peer-reviewed but was posted to the online server medrxiv.org on Tuesday -- involved analyzing the impact of early superspreading events in the Boston area and provided "direct evidence" that superspreading can profoundly alter the course of an epidemic.

'An unfortunate perfect storm'

The researchers -- from the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard in Cambridge and other various institutions -- conducted genetic analyses of coronavirus specimen samples in Massachusetts.

The researchers sequenced and analyzed 772 complete genomes of the virus from the region.

They found 80 introductions of the virus into the Boston, predominantly from elsewhere in the United States and Europe, and "hundreds of cases from major outbreaks" in various settings, including the conference.

The conference, held from February 26 to 27, was a "perfect storm" and the superspreading there could have been connected to approximately 20,000 cases, Bronwyn MacInnis, a researcher at the Broad Institute who worked on the study, told CNN in an email on Tuesday.

"Many factors made the conference an unfortunate perfect storm as a superspreading event.

That the virus was introduced at the conference at all was unlucky," MacInnis wrote in the email.

"This is not a rigorous estimate but does communicate the scale," MacInnis added.

"If tens of thousands of individuals seems large, it is important to point out that it is in context of a pandemic that has infected tens of millions of people."

Timing was crucial. In late February, people were not yet aware of the pandemic risk.

"When it happened was critical: it was scheduled just as we were collectively beginning to appreciate the imminent threat of COVID at home--if it had been a week later the event likely would have been cancelled," MacInnis wrote in the email.

"Also, because it happened early in the epidemic it had the chance to spread widely before extensive testing capacity, shutdowns, social distancing, and masking were in place," she wrote.

"The other critical factor was the population the virus landed in: people who had come from many different places (including some where COVID was already circulating), and who then returned home, often unknowingly bringing the virus with them."

'A much greater understanding of how easily and quickly this virus can be transmitted'

While the researchers did not identify the conference in their study, The Boston Globe on Tuesday said it was an international meeting of leaders from the biotechnology company Biogen at the Marriott Long Wharf hotel in Boston.

"February 2020 was nearly a half year ago, and was a period when general knowledge about the coronavirus was limited," Biogen said in a written statement to CNN on Tuesday.

"We were adhering closely to the prevailing official guidelines. We never would have knowingly put anyone at risk. When we learned a number of our colleagues were ill, we did not know the cause was COVID-19, but we immediately notified public health authorities and took steps to limit the spread."

The company noted in its statement that it joined a collaboration with the Broad Institute in April to share biological and medical data to advance knowledge around Covid-19.

"The world today has a much greater understanding of how easily and quickly this virus can be transmitted, and we are proud to contribute through this collaboration to the global effort to overcome COVID-19," it said.

Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker said in a news conference on Tuesday that he saw the Biogen conference in February as a "seminal event" in the coronavirus pandemic for the Boston area.

"I was criticized actually for saying a few months ago that the Biogen event was a seminal event with respect to corona here in the Commonwealth and I couldn't put a number on it at that point in time," Baker said.

"This is no offense to anybody, but at that point in time, nobody was wearing masks, nobody was social distancing, nobody was even behaving with concern about the presence of the virus at all. I mean all rules of the game with respect to that have changed," Baker said. "It speaks to the power of that virus to move from one person to another to another."

The new pre-print study also investigated the spread of the coronavirus in other settings across the Boston area, including a skilled nursing facility -- where 85% of residents and 37% of staff tested positive -- and a homeless shelter -- where the coronavirus was introduced seven times, including four that resulted in clusters of cases, according to the study.

"Our findings repeatedly highlight the close relationships between seemingly disconnected groups and populations: viruses from international business travel seeded major outbreaks among individuals experiencing homelessness, spread throughout the Boston area, and were exported to other domestic and international sites," the researchers wrote in the study.

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