New Coronavirus News from 28 Oct 2022

Expert: Over 8 mil. could get COVID-19 in Japan's 8th wave [NHK WORLD, 28 Oct 2022]

A Japanese professor estimates that more than 8 million people could be infected with the coronavirus in Japan by the end of February in a possible eighth wave of infections.

Kyoto University Professor Nishiura Hiroshi reported the result of a simulation at a meeting of the health ministry's expert panel on Wednesday.

Nishiura said that daily cases could hit nearly 200,000 nationwide, assuming that infections spread at a slightly slower pace than in Tokyo in July, when the seventh wave began.

He estimated that about 8.44 million people could be infected from October 10 through February 28, and that about 320,000 people could be hospitalized.

Nishiura said infections could drop 27 percent to about 6.16 million if the inoculation rate of the fourth vaccine shot reaches the same rate as that of the third jab in the next four months. He added that the total number of hospitalized people could be reduced 31 percent to about 220,000.

During the seventh wave of infections, about 12 million people were infected from July through September. The death toll during the period was the largest since the pandemic began.

Nishiura said that the spread of infections in the future will depend on whether new variants of the virus will emerge and whether people will continue to wear masks.

He predicted that raising the vaccine inoculation rate swiftly and drastically could lead to a smaller eighth wave of infections.

XBB variant, spreading fast in Singapore, detected in Tokyo [The Japan Times, 28 Oct 2022]

BY TOMOKO OTAKE

Six cases of the highly transmissible coronavirus variant XBB have been detected in Tokyo, according to the metropolitan government’s COVID-19 infection monitoring committee.

XBB — a virus formed from a combination of the omicron subvariants BA.2.75 and BA.2 — was first reported by Singapore in September and has since been confirmed in 35 countries.

The subvariant features several mutations in its spike protein — the part of the coronavirus that latches onto cells to gain entry — giving it an exceptional ability to evade immunity acquired through past infections or vaccination. But its severity is not yet known, the monitoring committee said Thursday.

In Singapore, XBB has overtaken BA.5, the previously dominant strain, and accounted for over 60% of all new cases as of Oct. 14. India and Bangladesh have also seen surges in XBB cases.
In addition to the six cases found in Tokyo, seven cases of XBB had been detected at airport checks in Japan as of Oct. 17, mostly from people who had stayed in India, according to the metropolitan government.

Several other new omicron subvariants have emerged in the capital in recent months. Tokyo has seen 131 cases so far of BF.7, a BA.5 sublineage, as well as 46 cases of BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, also from the BA.5 family. Both are known to spread more quickly than BA.5.

“While (the XBB variant) has spread in Singapore and a few other places, we have not yet seen signs of it becoming dominant worldwide,” said Mitsuo Kaku, an infection disease expert who serves on the metropolitan government committee. “We should keep monitoring the situation both at home and abroad.”

BA.5 remains the dominant strain of the coronavirus in Tokyo, like in the rest of Japan and the world, accounting for 94.3% of all strains sequenced this month. BA.5 drove Japan’s seventh and largest wave of infections, which began in early July and peaked in August.

Daily new infections have been hovering at around 40,000 to 50,000 nationwide recently, compared with a peak of over 250,000 in mid-August.

New Coronavirus News from 5 Nov 2022

Experts warn of 8th COVID wave as infections spread in Japan's chilly regions - The Mainichi [The Mainichi, 5 Nov 2022]

by Rikka Teramachi

TOKYO -- Experts in Japan are warning of an eighth wave of COVID-19 cases in the country as infections rise again mainly in the comparatively colder regions of the north.

The new daily infection numbers in the northernmost prefecture of Hokkaido have already neared those of the seventh wave this past summer. There are worries that Japan could see a dual coronavirus-seasonal influenza spike this winter, and the government is urging people to get vaccinated quickly.

According to data released by the government on Nov. 4, the number of new COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents during the most recent week increased from the previous week in all of Japan's 47 prefectures. The infection number per 100,000 people was highest in Hokkaido, followed by Yamagata Prefecture and Nagano Prefecture -- all colder regions.

Hokkaido recorded 7,895 new daily cases on Nov. 2, nearing the 8,632-case peak of the seventh infection wave. In Tokyo, the average number of new daily infections during the week up to Nov. 2 stood at about 4,305 -- 1.3 times more than in the previous seven days. In the Tokyo Metropolitan Government's recent infection situation monitoring meeting, one expert reported, "We need to watch out for a future surge."

The average number of new flu cases reported at fixed points across the country during the week ending Oct. 30 stood at 0.03, according to data released by the health ministry on Nov. 4. The figure was lower than the 0.80 for the same period in 2019, but higher than the same period in 2020 and 2021, at 0.01 and 0, respectively.

Tokyo Medical University specially appointed professor Atsuo Hamada, an expert in infectious diseases, pointed out that people tend to ventilate indoor spaces less often in cold weather, and that there are now more instances of crowding such as public events than at previous points in the pandemic. He said that the chance of a nationwide eighth COVID-19 wave is "extremely high."

To prepare for a simultaneous outbreak of COVID-19 and flu, Hamada emphasized, "We want people to get vaccinated for the (coronavirus's) omicron variant and influenza early while taking basic measures to prevent infections." He also said that people need to wear masks in crowded spaces.

While the central government is also urging people to get vaccinated quickly, only 5.9% of Japan's residents have received the omicron-specific shots that began on Sept. 20, according to the information released on Nov. 4. Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said at a Nov. 4 news conference, "We want young people -- not only the elderly, who have a high risk of developing severe symptoms -- to consider getting vaccinated by the end of year."

New York is becoming an 'emerging hotspot' for the XBB family of COVID variants that hit Singapore, as BQ closes in on U.S. dominance [Fortune, 5 Nov 2022]

BY ERIN PRATER

A wave of infections involving an extremely immune-evasive COVID strain that started spreading in New York and recently reached California is about to engulf the rest of the U.S., according to a report from federal health officials released Friday.

Two variants of the BQ strain are projected to comprise 35% of U.S. infections, according to a COVID forecast from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That puts the variant family just slightly behind BA.5, which still led U.S. cases on Friday, at an estimated 39%.

BQ cases may very well dominate the CDC’s next weekly forecast, scheduled for next Friday. Experts—including Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research and founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute—have said for weeks that BQ would likely serve as the primary force behind the next U.S. wave of COVID cases.

Bebtelovimab, the last remaining lab-made antibody drug effective on all COVID variants, is not expected to work against BQ and its close relative, BQ.1.1, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said Friday. That’s bad news for immunocompromised patients, many of whom need extra help from hospital-administered monoclonal antibody treatments to fight off the virus after being infected.

Is XBB waiting in the wings? Meanwhile, a potential U.S. wave of equally concerning variant XBB is brewing, Raj Rajnarayanan, assistant dean of research and associate professor at the New York Institute of Technology campus in Jonesboro, Ark., tells Fortune.

As usual, the epicenter is New York. The Empire State is considered a bellwetherwhen it comes to COVID waves because of its volume of incoming international travelers and robust genetic sequencing capabilities.

“New York is an emerging XBB.1 hotspot,” Rajnarayanan said.

The variant—a recombinant, or combination, of two strains of Omicron—recently made headlines for spiking in well-vaccinated Singapore. Along with BQ.1.1, it’s considered to be the most immune-evasive COVID variant so far, surpassing the immune-evasiveness of shared ancestor BA.5, which was dominant around the globe this summer.

Of the 35 cases of XBB or descendants identified in the U.S. so far, nearly half have been identified in New York, Rajnarayanan says, citing data from GISAID, an international research organization that tracks changes in COVID and the flu virus. Most of those cases were of XBB.1, a “child” variant of XBB that shows an advantage in transmissibility, but about which little else is known.

The CDC has yet to report on XBB in the U.S., and won’t until it comprises more than 1% of sequenced cases nationally for a minimum of one week. For now, XBB cases are grouped in with BA.5, its parent lineage.

A contest many variants can win
A variety of Omicron variants are spiking in various countries this fall—and variant trackers have been waiting to see if XBB and BQ will battle for dominance in the same location.

That may or may not happen in the U.S. An XBB wave could follow the country’s BQ wave, experts say.

Or, both may become dominant.

“XBB and BQs at the same time will be something,” Dr. Ryan Gregory, a professor of evolutionary biology at the University of Guelph in Ontario, Canada, told Fortune.

XBB may combine with a BQ variant, and the new child variant may lead the pack, Gregory says.

But one thing is certain, according to Rajnarayanan: XBB is a good candidate to trigger the next wave in New York, where it currently comprises between 2% and 3% of sequenced COVID cases.

New Coronavirus News from 23 Oct 2022

The Emergence of New SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Subvariants XBB in Bangladesh [ReliefWeb, 23 Oct 2022]

From 10 September to 14 October 2022, icddr,b sequenced 92 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and found that the virus is still changing over time.

• During the first two weeks (from 10 September to 23 September), Omicron BA.2 (84%) and BA.5 (16%) were identified (Figure 1).
• Interestingly, most of these subvariants were replaced by a new subvariant XBB which constituted 85% (41 out of 48) of the viruses circulating across the country during the last three weeks (from 24 September to 14 October).
• Another new subvariant BM.1.1.1 (n=2) was also identified during this period.
• The XBB has already caused a remarkable surge of COVID-19 in Singapore and arrived in at least 17 countries including India, the USA, Australia and Hong Kong.

Clinical features of XBB-infected patients were available for 32 patients; male 18 and female 14.
• Most of them (78%) had mild to moderate symptoms. Six had severe symptoms and were hospitalized
• Fever (66%), cough (50%), headache (44%), body aches and pains (41%), runny nose (37%) and weakness (37%) were the most common complaints
• 91% received at least 2 doses of vaccines
• Reinfection was identified in 15 patients (47%)

The emergence of Omicron XBB in Bangladesh should be monitored cautiously, and effective measures should be taken to reduce the transmission of this new variant to prevent any new wave in the country. Although the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in Bangladesh at present is modest, considering the emergence of the new variant, everyone should practice the following precautions to keep safe from COVID-19.
• Vaccination is key; get vaccinated
• Keep wearing a well-fitted facemask
• Maintain physical distancing, even though vaccinated or naturally infected
•Wash hands with soap and water frequently.

New Coronavirus News from 4 Nov 2022

U.S. faces highest flu hospitalization rate in a decade with young kids and seniors most at risk [CNBC, 4 Nov 2022]

BY Spencer Kimball

KEY POINTS
•　Hospitalization rates for the flu are at their highest level since 2010, according to the CDC.
•　Seniors and children younger than age 5 are most at risk right now, public health official said.
•　Cases of respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, is also increasing in almost every region of the U.S.
•　Dr. Anthony Fauci warned hospitals could face a “negative trifecta” from emerging Covid variants, flu and RSV.

The U.S. is facing the highest flu hospitalization rates in more than a decade with children and the elderly most at risk, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Flu and respiratory syncytial virus had receded during the Covid-19 pandemic due to mitigation measures such as masks and social distancing. But as people start to return to their normal routines and socialize without masks, the viruses are staging a major comeback.

At least 1.6 million people have fallen ill with the flu so far this season, 13,000 people have been hospitalized, and 730 have died, according to CDC data.

About about 3 patients are being hospitalized with the flu out of every 100,000 people with the virus right now, which is the highest rate since 2010. The current hospitalization rate is nearly five times what was observed during the last pre-pandemic season in 2019.

Seniors and children younger than age 5 face the biggest risk right now, with hospitalization rates about double the general population, according to CDC data.

“There are also early signs of influenza causing severe illness in precisely these two groups of individuals,” Dr. Jose Romero, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters during a briefing Friday.

In the Southeastern U.S., about 20% of respiratory samples are testing positive for a strain of flu called H3N2 that has been associated with more severe illness in children and older people in the past, Romero said. In the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, H1N1 flu viruses are growing in circulation, he said.

Cases of respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, are also increasing in almost every region of the U.S. right now, Romero said. In most of the South and parts of the West, however, RSV is trending downward and the flu is now surging, he said.

RSV is a common virus that most children catch before age two. It normally causes cold-like symptoms, but can also result in serious illness requiring hospitalization for infants and the elderly.

Romero said mitigation measures implemented during Covid left a large swath of the U.S. population uninfected with other common respiratory viruses, and as a consequence these viruses are now surging because young children in particular do not have immunity from prior infections.

The federal government is prepared to send medical teams and provide supplies from the strategic national stockpile if hospitals are stretched beyond capacity, according to Dawn O’Connell, a senior official at the Health and Human Services Department. No state has requested such support so far, O’Connell said.

Romero called on everyone who is eligible to get their annual flu shot and Covid booster dose. Children younger than age 8 who are receiving the flu vaccine for the first time should receive two doses for the best protection, he said. There is no vaccine that protects against RSV.

Romero also called for people to take everyday, commonsense precautions such as covering your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing and washing your hands frequently.

It’s often difficult to the tell the difference between flu, RSV and Covid symptoms. Romero said parents should seek medical attention for their children right away if they show any of the following warning signs: Trouble breathing, blueish lips or face, chest or muscle pain, dehydration (dry mouth, crying without tears, or not urinating for hours), or not alert or interactive when awake.

White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci also warned this week Covid deaths are still far too high. Fauci said the U.S. stands at a crossroads as omicron subvariants emerge that are resistant to key antibody treatments that protect the most vulnerable.

Fauci warned hospitals could face a “negative trifecta” this winter from emerging Covid variants, the flu, and RSV.

“It’s going to be very confounding and might even stress the hospital system, particularly for the pediatric population,” Fauci said.

Fauci says U.S. is at a ‘crossroads’ as COVID kills 2,600 a week and new Omicron variants bloom with winter coming soon [Fortune, 4 Nov 2022]

BY SOPHIE MELLOR

The U.S. is coming to a difficult COVID crossroads as the cold winter months approach and new immune-evasive variants of Omicron emerge, White House Chief Medical Advisor Anthony Fauci says.

While the situation is certainly different from last winter when Omicron dominated all other variants, a new “variant soup” of Omicron sublineages like XBB, BQ.1, and BQ.1.1 are gaining ground across the country, wiping out key tools used to protect immune-compromised people.

“We’re really at a point that may be a crossroads here. As we’re entering into the cooler months, we are starting to see the emergence of sublineage variants of Omicron,” Fauci said on the Conversations on Health Care radio show on Thursday.

Longtime warnings
For months, Fauci has been warning that a new, more immune-evasive variant would emerge over the winter. He previously sounded the alarm on the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 sublineages of Omicron, because of their rapid infection rates and their apparent ability to evade antibody treatments.

Fauci has assured that healthy people with vaccinations, boosters, and/or a previous natural infection from a subvariant like BA.5 will be protected from the new sublineages. However, U.S. health officials fear antibody treatments like Evusheld—a pre-exposure prophylaxis treatment to prevent COVID-19 for severely immune-compromised people—will become ineffective in the face of these new variants.

Fauci also stressed in Thursday’s interview that the pandemic was far from over. The number of deaths from COVID, which still averages around 2,600 a week, remains far too high, Fauci emphasized, adding “we’re still in the middle of this—it is not over. Four hundred deaths per day is not an acceptable level.”

Variant soup
For the past two years, colder temperatures have brought seasonal upticks in COVID cases, which have then turned into massive waves of infection riding the emergence of highly transmissible new variants, like Alpha and Omicron.

This year “there is this soup of variants,” Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London, told the Atlantic. While no new variant has come out on top yet, Fauci and other experts are closely monitoring a pair of potentially troubling viral offshoots called BQ.1 and XBB, which may soon monopolize infections in certain parts of the world.

Both these new sublineages descended from Omicron: BQ.1 comes from BA.5, while XBB comes from two different BA.2 lineages recombined into one.

Experts in Asia are paying close attention to the XBB strain, which has taken a significant foothold in countries like Bangladesh and Singapore, and have called it one of the most immune-evasive variants yet.

Meanwhile in the U.S., the previous BA.5 variant still remains the most dominant strain, accounting for more than 49.6% of cases from Oct. 23 to Oct. 29, but the number of BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 cases has been steadily rising each week. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 strains now represent 27% of all COVID infections combined, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Nowcast, when just a month ago the two strains only accounted for 1.7% of all cases.

BQ.1 and XBB are distinct enough from each other that they could end up co-circulating, Peacock says, but he notes that it is too early to say for sure.

Our holiday plans may be in jeopardy nonetheless, as Peacock grimly warns that we could soon get an unwelcome surprise—just as Omicron upended winter expectations last Thanksgiving.

New Coronavirus News from 9 Oct 2022

Covid cases spike sharply in Germany since the start of the Oktoberfest celebrations [Times Now, 9 Oct 2022]

By Ashima Sharda Mahindra

Munich has seen a sharp rise in the number of covid infections since the start of Germany's famous Oktoberfest, which according to reports has become a super spreader event.

New Delhi: The world-famous Oktoberfest of Germany, which resumed two years after the pandemic break, has turned out to be a covid super spreader as there has been a sharp spike since the start of the annual celebration.

According to the Star, since the start of the Oktoberfest celebrations in mid-September in the state of Bavaria, the seven-day incidence of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people has been on a steady increase.

The incidence rate in the state has nearly tripled to 818, the Robert Koch Institute said. At the federal level, the incidence rate has doubled to 577.5 over the same period.

Bavaria's Health Minister Klaus Holetschek acknowledged last week that he believed the event "has had an impact."

Following a two-year hiatus due to the COVID-19 pandemic, millions of tourists from across the world have attended the world's largest Volksfestfeaturing beer, veal sausages, and traditional Bavarian folk music.

The organizers estimated that the event attracted around 5.7 million visitors this year, 600,000 fewer than in 2019.

In the last week, more than 10,000 new COVID cases were reported, which is about 6,500 more than in Hamburg, where the second-highest number of cases were registered in the last seven days.

PCR test samples have shown that 2 per cent of Oktoberfest visitors are already infected at the event.

Europe braces for a new covid wave
WHO data showed that infections in the European Union reached 1.5 million last week, up 8 per cent from the previous week. There has been a dramatic fall in testing as well.

With the onset of winter, health experts have opined that another covid wave is in the offing in the continent as booster uptake has shown a tepid response due to vaccine fatigue and confusion over the types of available vaccines.

According to Reuters, hospitalisation rates have shot up in several of the 27-nation bloc's member states, and in Britain by about 45 per cent. Omicronsubvariants BA.4/5 are behind the majority of infections in Europe but newer Omicron subvariants are also gaining ground.

New Coronavirus News from 3 Nov 2022

A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat [Nature, 3 Nov 2022]

Authored by Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Diana Romero, Christopher J. Kopka, Salim Abdool Karim, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Gisele Almeida, Ricardo Baptista-Leite, Joshua A. Barocas, Mauricio L. Barreto, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Quique Bassat, Carolina Batista, Morgan Bazilian, Shu-Ti Chiou, Carlos del Rio, Gregory J. Dore, George F. Gao, Lawrence O. Gostin, Margaret Hellard, Jose L. Jimenez, Gagandeep Kang, Nancy Lee, Mojca Matičič, Martin McKee, The COVID-19 Consensus Statement Panel

Abstract
Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.

Nature volume 611, pages 332–345 (2022)

Opinion | The New Covid Subvariants Don’t Really Change Anything [The New York Times, 3 Nov 2022]

By LAURI MYLLYVIRTA

Analysis: EU’s CO2 emissions fall 5% in three months after post-Covid surge
The EU’s emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from energy use have fallen by 5% over the past three months compared with the same period in 2021, new analysis shows.

The analysis for Carbon Brief is based on a new near-real-time emissions tracker developed by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). It shows the recent fall in emissions has brought to an end a 16-month surge that began in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic.

The tracker draws on real-time data from the EU electricity and gas transparency platforms, as well as on monthly Eurostat data on oil consumption. It shows demand for fossil fuels is falling due to high prices and strong wind and solar output, contrary to fears of a resurgencedue to the energy crisis.

EU markets are responding with a surge in renewables, heat pumps and electric vehicles. EU governments have also raised their ambition on the transition to low-carbon energy.

The new analysis shows the energy crisis is already starting to push down EU emissions. The response from markets and governments suggests this trend is likely to accelerate.

EU CO2 emissions are falling
The Coronavirus pandemic swept around the world starting in early 2020, leading to millions of deaths and the suspension of day-to-day economic activity.

These lockdowns had a huge and immediate impact on emissions, which fell by a record amount in 2020. But the drop was temporary and emissions surged back as economies reopened.

The rebound from the pandemic has been followed by a global energy crisis after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March 2022 and its weaponisation of gas supplies to Europe.

With many countries looking to coal and other domestic supplies to shore up their energy security, there have been suggestions that emissions could increase once again.

However, the new analysis of EU emissions in near real-time proves the opposite is the case, with the bloc’s CO2 output having declined by 5% in the most recent three-month period. The fall accelerated to 8% in October.

This is shown in the chart below, which also illustrates the drop and rebound from the Coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021.

Where and why emissions are falling The factors underlying the overall trend in EU emissions vary from sector to sector.

Emissions from transport and electricity started rebounding from the Covid-19 lows in the summer of 2020. From March 2021 until July 2022, their CO2 emissions increased year-on-year every month.

The increase was compounded by the underperformance of nuclear and hydropower (see the graph on power generation below), and a major heatwave in the summer, which boosted demand for power from fossil fuels (see the graph on cooling needs).

The increase in CO2 emissions has now reversed as high fossil fuel prices have suppressed electricity and gas demand, particularly in industry and households. This is shown in the figure below, with emissions from coal power and gas outside the power sector showing particularly notable decreases relative to a year earlier.

High prices and the resulting drop in spending power are also affecting oil demand, reflected in the broadly stable emissions from this fuel since July, seen in the figure above.
In the power sector, explored in more detail below, growth in solar power capacity has delivered substantial additional generation. In September-October 2022, hydropower generation normalised and good wind conditions offset the need for fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the major drop in nuclear power generation was arrested.

Misconceptions around EU emissions trends Importantly, neither the fall in power generation from coal and gas in September-October, nor the steepening fall in gas consumption in industry and households since July, can be accounted for by the weather alone.

The analysis measures the impact of weather on energy demand using “heating degree-days”, the sum of the difference between daily average temperatures and the threshold of 15C, when temperatures are below this level.

Cooling degree-days, correspondingly, are degrees above 24C. The population-weighted heating load for the entire EU is a very good predictor of energy demand. Our analysis can account for 80% of the day-to-day variation in gas consumption and 70% of the variation in electricity consumption using the heating and cooling degree days as the predictor.

These metrics are shown in the figure below, with 2022 shown in red and previous years in shades of blue. Heating needs in September 2022 were higher than in 2021, so the reduction in electricity and gas demand during this period cannot be accounted for by temperatures. In October, unseasonably low heating needs have compounded the trend. The figure also shows the dramatic increase in cooling needs this summer.

Similarly, the increase in power-sector emissions seen until August cannot be accounted for by policy decisions favourable to coal, such as the extension of the life of coal plants slated to retire.

There was no shift this year in the fuel mix of thermal power generation, even when thermal power generation as a whole was increasing. When more electricity had to be generated using thermal power plants to make up for the shortfall in hydropower and nuclear power, the generation from coal and gas increased together, with no shift from gas to coal.

In September and October 2022, power generation from gas still increased year-on-year, albeit at a lower rate, while coal dropped. If the earlier increase in coal use was driven by policies favouring coal, as has been repeatedly suggested, this should have changed the fuel mix.

Contrary to common perception, the increase in emissions from summer 2021 until June this year was not the result of the energy crisis.

Instead, analysis of data shows that the increase in fossil fuel demand happened due to the unrelated reasons listed above, coincidentally compounding the supply crunch caused by Russia’s actions and worsening the crisis.

What is behind high fossil fuel prices? Gas deliveries from Russia from January to September 2022 were 490 terawatt hours (TWh) lower than in 2021, a reduction of 45%, as shown in the figure below.

The chart shows how Russia had already started cutting back gas sales from summer 2021, with more significant declines from January 2022 as it prepared to invade Ukraine.

In addition to reduced imports, EU gas storage was already partially depleted at the start of the year, with 20% less gas in storage than earlier years – a shortfall of 200TWh. Gazprom, which operated gas storage facilities in Germany, had run down its own storage.

Just as Russia was slashing exports to Europe, China experienced a shortfall in domestic coal production, which drove up imports and prices in autumn 2021 and contributed to the onset of the fossil fuel crisis. However, in 2022, China’s fossil fuel consumption and imports have been falling precipitously, providing substantial relief to the tight global market.

In 2022, however, two things happened that strongly compounded the impact of Russia’s gas supply cuts: a volley of maintenance problems at French nuclear plants; and a drought in the Mediterranean that affected hydropower output.

These are illustrated in the figure below, showing EU electricity generation by fuel in 2022 (red lines) and 2021 (blue), versus the range seen during 2016-2021 (shaded areas).

Nuclear power generation in January to September 2022 was 84TWh lower than the year before, with 70% explained by maintenance outages in France and 29% by Germany shutting down three reactors at the end of 2021.

Hydropower generation was down 62TWh in January to September 2022 compared with the year before. The largest falls took place in Italy, France, Spain and Portugal – all countries affected by the exceptional drought in the Mediterranean.

Oil consumption increased by 220TWh (7%) year-on-year in the first half of 2022, in a continuation of the rebound from Covid-19.

Gas demand outside the power sector rebounded in the first half of 2021, but as gas prices shot up in the autumn of 2021, gas consumption already began to fall. Gas consumption outside the power sector contracted 360TWh (15%) in January to September 2022, while consumption in the power sector increased by 40TWh (6%).

Solar and wind power generation performed strongly, increasing 58TWh (16%) compared to 2021, thanks to record-breaking solar installation volumes in 2021.

These factors contributing to the crisis are unrelated to Russia’s actions, but have compounded the problems triggered by Russia’s war and its use of energy as a weapon.

Germany’s bet on gas Emblematic of Europe’s vulnerability to Russia’s weaponisation of gas supply is Germany’s increasing reliance on the fuel. Germany is the EU’s largest economy and energy consumer.

The country’s “Energiewende” energy plan counted on gas as a “transition” fuel while coal and nuclear were being phased out. Accordingly, Germany has seen a shift away from coal and nuclear energy, and a shift towards renewables and gas over the past decade.

As Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany was on the brink of opening up the Nord Stream 2pipeline, which would have doubled its capacity to import gas directly from Russia.

From 2010 to 2021, Germany’s nuclear power generation fell by 51% (72TWh) and that from coal by 40% (100TWh). The rapid growth of renewables – up 160% (130TWh) – was not enough to offset these declines, so gas power generation also grew 46% (28TWh). Gas consumption outside the power sector fell until 2014 but has been climbing since then.

On New Year’s Eve 2021, Germany closed down three nuclear power plants, or half its remaining fleet, removing about 30TWh per year of non-fossil electricity generation.

Furthermore, Germany’s investments in wind power stalled after 2015, falling far behind the rest of Europe. Had Germany followed the growth trajectory of the rest of Europe for wind power installations, it would have been generating an additional 87TWh. This is equivalent to the annual power generation of the six nuclear plants still running in 2021.

In light of recent events, Germany has been adjusting its policies to promote much faster electrification of building heat, as the clearest example of abandoning the idea of gas as a transition fuel.

How are EU markets responding?
The fossil fuel crisis has triggered forceful responses from markets and policymakers.

Investments in solar power and heat pumps, as well as the sales of electric vehicles (EVs), have surged as a result of record-high fossil fuel prices.

Europe will add nearly 40GW of solar in 2022, according to SolarPower Europe (SPE). This would be up 45% from the 27GW added last year, which itself was the highest in a decade.

Passenger electric vehicle sales increased 16% year-on-year in Europe in the second quarter of 2022, the first full quarter after the start of the invasion. This comes on top of a 70% increase in 2021, when one in six car sales were electric. The 2021 market share of EVs exceeded 50% in the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway.

The European Heat Pump Association projects a 30% increase in sales in 2022, on top of 35% growth in 2021. Deliveries of heat pumps in Germany were up 25% year-on-year in the first half of 2022 and the government has called on the industry to ramp up production.

French nuclear generation is due to start recovering as state-owned utility EDF brings reactors under maintenance back online. Around 15-20GW is expected to be back in operation by early January 2023. Germany’s decision to extend the operation of its three remaining reactors until April 2023 will also boost low-carbon electricity supplies.

The reduction in gas use has been the main driver of the EU’s recent fall in emissions. Record-high gas prices are also incentivising an increase in gas supply infrastructure.

As more supply becomes available, first through floating terminals to receive liquified natural gas (LNG) and in a few years though onshore terminals, gas consumption could recover.

On the other hand, investments in heat pumps, building energy efficiency and electrification in industry are replacing gas, which has also become a new priority in energy policy.

As a result, there is a risk that the scramble to secure gas supplies in the near-term could lock EU countries into more supply contracts than they need in a few years’ time.

How are governments responding? Supporting the market reaction are a host of new policies at EU and national level, designed to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels.

The REPowerEU plan, launched in May, targets a 45% share of renewable energy sources in the EU’s energy mix by 2030. This includes not only electricity generation, but also all other uses of energy, such as transport and industrial fuel use.

In practice, a much higher share of renewable energy is required in power generation, where the largest potential for expansion lies. The Commission estimates that reaching the target requires 1,236GW of wind and solar power capacity by 2030. This is 16% higher than the 1,067GW envisaged by the previous “Fit for 55” strategy. If the new target is realised, renewables will make up 69% of EU electricity by 2030.

Some 19 EU countries have accelerated their decarbonisation plans and policies in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, the gas crisis and Russian aggression. Low-carbon sources are set to reach 82% of EU electricity in 2030, up from 74% under previous plans.

The main bottleneck for onshore wind expansion in Europe is permitting. The European Commission and many member states are taking action to address the issue, promising faster expansion of wind generation in the coming years.

For example, the German government has implemented a new “Wind-on-Land-Act”, which seeks to overcome the hurdles that have caused slow expansion. It aims for 10GW of onshore wind to be added per year and for 2% of land to be opened up for development.

In August, eight EU countries bordering the Baltic Sea agreed to increase offshore wind power capacity sevenfold by 2030, to reduce their dependence on Russian energy.

Europe’s CO2 emissions have already started falling due to the fossil fuel crisis. The lasting effects of the crisis will materialise over the next few years, as accelerated investments in low-carbon alternatives begin to bear fruit.

Methodology The analysis of the EU’s CO2 emissions trends is based on CREA’s near-real-time emissions tracker.

It tracks daily power generation data from the transparency platform of ENTSO-E, the European power grid operator. Emissions are estimated from power output based on average emissions from coal and gas-fired generation by country. These are derived by aligning the daily power generation data with earlier Eurostat monthly data on hard coal, lignite and gas use for power generation.

Gas consumption is obtained from daily data on gas flows from ENTSOG, the European gas network operator. The “apparent consumption” is calculated, which is the residual of imports from outside the EU, domestic production and flows into and out of storage.

For total oil consumption and for coal consumption outside the power sector, we extend the latest monthly data for each country, based on the average deviation from the 2019–2021 average in the past three months.

For oil, consumption is based on observed gross inland deliveries, a measure of implied oil consumption based on refinery output, imports, exports and stock changes, as well as deliveries of crude oil and natural gas liquids to non-refinery users, along with several smaller flows (see full definition).

For coal, usage is based on final consumption reported by (industrial) users and sales to residential and commercial consumers reported by sellers. Currently, data is available for most countries until the end of August 2022.

CO2 emissions are estimated from data on fuel consumption, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) default emissions factors.

New Coronavirus News from 17 Oct 2022

Next covid wave could be on a collision course with holiday travel [The Washington Post,, 17 Oct 2022]

By James Bikales

Coronavirus surges in Europe and Asia could soon come to the U.S. — and inject chaos into your travel plans

Covid wave building in Europe could throw holiday travel into chaos
The summer of 2022 delivered on predictions that it would be the season of “revenge travel,” with countries dropping coronavirus restrictions, passengers filling up long-haul flights and cruise ships, and demand soaring to levels not seen since 2019.

With the winter holidays approaching, that demand shows no signs of slowing down. The Transportation Security Administration screenednearly 2.5 million passengers Sunday, the highest daily figure since February 2020.

Still, the coronavirus has remained persistent, scuttling long-awaited plans, straining the travel industry’s workforce and making many summer trips turn hellish. Now, health experts are warning that another winter surge could be ahead, with cases already rising in Europe and researchers keeping an eye on new strains of the virus.

XBB, BQ.1.1, BA.2.75.2 — a variant swarm could fuel a winter surge
The uptick comes as many Americans headed abroad will have less protection against the dominant omicron variant, because vaccination rates for the new bivalent booster are lagging. As of early October, only about 4 percent of eligible Americans had received the new shot.

Here’s what to know if you plan to take a big trip this holiday season.

Where is the coronavirus surging around the world?
Signs point to a surge in Europe, which could foretell another winter wave in the United States. Cases rose by 104 percent in Portugal and 42 percent in Switzerland over the past week, while the virus has also surged in Germany, France, Italy and Austria, according to The Washington Post’s coronavirus tracker.

The World Health Organization and European Center for Disease Prevention and Control warned Wednesday that the continent is probably entering a new coronavirus wave, which will coincide with a resurgence in the flu. In the ECDC’s latest weekly report, it noted “widespread increases were being observed in all indicators,” including cases, hospitalizations and deaths across the continent.

Coronavirus cases are also up in parts of Asia, including South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, which have dropped most of their travel restrictions in recent months. In Singapore, which has seen a 44 percent increase in the average number of daily reported cases over the past week, the Ministry of Health said Saturday that an omicron subvariant known as XBB jumped from a 22 percent share of local cases to 54 percent over the course of a week.

Opinion: A winter pandmemic wave is looming. Get the booster.

When cases rise in Europe, it’s often “just a matter of weeks or months” until a surge follows in the United States, said Sanjana Ravi, a visiting assistant scientist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health.

“We saw that with the delta variant. We saw that with the omicron variant,” Ravi said. “I think it’s safe to take precautions considering that we’re starting to see those numbers go up again in Europe now.”

How will the travel industry be affected?
A winter coronavirus wave will probably further strain airports and airlines that were plagued by labor shortages over the summer.

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol has announced that short staffing will force it to cap the number of passengers it can accommodate per day through at least March. Dutch carrier KLM said it would have to reduce winter ticket sales at Schiphol by up to 22 percent because of the limits.
Chaos at European airports strands travelers. Here’s why.

Last winter, U.S. airlines were forced to cancel thousands of flightsaround Christmas as the omicron variant sickened employees. The following week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shortened the isolation period for asymptomatic coronavirus infections to five days, fearing a breakdown in essential services.

Henry Harteveldt, a travel analyst at Atmosphere Research Group, said this year’s bookings for holiday travel within Europe and between the United States and Europe appear strong. Still, he noted, airline executives are concerned about a number of factors that could dampen travel, including a coronavirus surge and economic uncertainty.

“It’s as if right now, the travel industry is standing on a plank of wood that can support its weight … but which may splinter at any moment, possibly with little warning,” Harteveldt said in an email.

Should I reconsider my travel plans?
For young, healthy people who are fully vaccinated, including with the bivalent booster, most travel is safe, said Henry Wu, an associate professor of medicine at Emory University and director of the Emory TravelWell Center.

Elderly and immunocompromised individuals, however, might want to consider shifting their plans to avoid crowded areas and countries without high-quality medical care, even if they are vaccinated, Wu said. Ahead of winter, he recommended travelers look for locales with milder weather that allows them to eat outdoors.

Your guide to planning a European vacation
“Early on in the covid pandemic, a lot of the outbreaks did occur in ski lodges,” Wu said. “We had a lot of people in indoor spaces, which probably seem cozy at that moment, but also probably had less than adequate ventilation.”

Ravi recommended postponing all nonessential travel to Europe, especially for those at high risk. If you must travel, she said, test before departing home, wear an N95 mask for the duration of transit and consider bringing an air filter.

Lin H. Chen, an associate professor at Harvard Medical School and director of the Travel Medicine Center at Mount Auburn Hospital, recommended travelers consider travel medical insurance in case they have to cancel their trip at the last minute or they get sick abroad.

Are covid restrictions likely to return?
Over the past year, most of the world has relaxed its coronavirus restrictions for travelers, including vaccination, testing and mask mandates. Europe’s top destinations, such as Italy, France, the United Kingdom and Germany, are fully open for tourism.

Mark Fischer, a regional medical director at International SOS, a health and security risk management firm, said he does not expect those restrictions to return, even with a winter surge.

“However, I think there’s a key focus on the overall health-care burden of the winter respiratory season,” with governments monitoring how the coronavirus and the flu together affect hospital systems, Fischer said.

Wu said countries dropping their restrictions does not mean measures such as being vaccinated and wearing a high-quality mask are not “extremely useful” to individual travelers.

“I would advise even travelers who are not concerned with severe illness. Covid or influenza can still make you miserable on your trip or your vacation,” he said.

Chen recommended immunocompromised travelers consider Evusheld, a preventive antibody treatment, before their trip to “supercharge their protection.”

Do I need a flu shot, too?
After coronavirus precautions kept the flu largely at bay the past two years, Wu said it is “quite possible” seasonal flu makes a major return this winter. He recommended all travelers get their annual flu shots before departing.

“I’ve always told travelers that probably the vaccine that’s most likely to save your life, pre-covid, is the flu shot, because the flu is just so common, historically, among travelers,” Wu said.

Ravi said it’s easy to get your flu shot and bivalent booster at the same time at your local pharmacy.

“Just because we’re in the middle of a pandemic at the moment, it doesn’t mean that other respiratory viruses aren’t still a threat,” Ravi said.

What if I test positive while abroad?
The most important thing travelers can do is build flexibility into their itinerary, so they can avoid travel if they do test positive, Wu said.

“When you plan your trip, if potentially getting sick and having to stay somewhere an extra four or five or more days is a big problem, then probably that trip is either not the best trip to take, or it means the travelers really should take those precautions to prevent getting sick while traveling,” he said.

You tested positive in a foreign country. Here’s what you should do.

Chen, the former president of the International Society of Travel Medicine, recommended travelers use ISTM’s online clinic directory to find reliable medical care if they get sick abroad. You should also speak to your doctor before traveling, especially if you think you might need antiviral treatment because of a preexisting condition, she said.

Where can I find more information?
The CDC provides recommendations for international travel, which urge travelers to be fully up to date on vaccinations, including boosters; wear masks on public transportation; and test before departure and after arrival.

The CDC recently ended its country-specific covid-19 travel designations but still issues travel health notices for countries where travelers would be at extreme risk for contracting the coronavirus. The State Department also issues country-specific travel advisories, which factor in covid-19 risk and other threats.

Travelers can also check databases such as Sherpa and Kayak for the latest information on coronavirus restrictions in foreign countries.

New Coronavirus News from 26 Oct 2022

No surge expected in global COVID-19 cases this winter, says IHME report [The Hindu, 26 Oct 2022]

IHME’s report suggests that the current surge in COVID-19 infections in Germany might be due to Omicron subvariants BQ.1 or BQ.1.1

Global COVID-19 infections are projected to rise slowly to about 18.7 million average daily cases by February next year from the current 16.7 million daily driven by the northern hemisphere’s winter months, the University of Washington said in an analysis. The increase in infections is not expected to cause a surge in deaths, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said. It forecast that global daily deaths would average 2,748 people on February 1 compared with around 1,660 now.

IHME estimates that daily infections in the United States will increase by a third to more than a million, driven by students returning to school and cold weather-related seasonal illness.

A surge in Germany has peaked already, it said in its report on October 24 , and expects cases to fall by more than a third to around 190,000 by February.

IHME’s report suggests that the current surge in COVID-19 infections in Germany might be due to Omicron subvariants BQ.1 or BQ.1.1, and will likely spread to other parts of Europe in the coming weeks.

The report adds that the rapid increase in hospital admissions in Germany – highest since the COVID outbreak in 2020 – remains an area of concern.

IHME’s analysis also shows that the new Omicron subvariant XBB, which is currently driving a surge in hospitalizations in Singapore, is more transmissible but less severe.

The global impact of XBB is expected to be muted by the fact that people who were previously infected with the BA.5 subvariant of Omicron likely have immunity against it, the report shows.

New Coronavirus News from 16 Oct 2022

As COVID surges in Germany, studies show more risks from infections for children [WSWS, 16 Oct 2022]

By Tamino Dreisam

As a massive coronavirus wave develops in the autumn and hospitalization rates skyrocket, more and more studies are revealing the dangerous consequences of COVID infection, even for children.

The number of coronavirus infections in Germany has increased exponentially in recent weeks, with more than 100,000 people becoming infected daily. On Thursday alone, 145,000 infections were reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Just a week ago, an average of “only” 62,000 people were being infected every day. According to official figures, 1.4 million people in Germany are currently infected: about one in 60 inhabitants.

The actual figures are much higher. Only positive PCR tests are included in the RKI statistics. However, many people do not take a PCR test after a positive lateral flow test. The testing infrastructure and mandatory testing have been almost completely scaled back. The high positive test rate of 47.8 percent gives an indication of the high number of unreported cases.

As the number of infections increases, the number of those who experience a severe illness also skyrockets. The adjusted hospitalization incidence rate is now almost 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, which corresponds to 15,000 hospitalizations per week, meaning it has doubled in less than two weeks. At latest count, the number of people being treated in intensive care is 1,706.

The German Hospital Association (DKG) warns of hospitals becoming overloaded. Compared to the previous week, bed occupancy for those with COVID “increased by 50 percent,” the chairman of the board Gerald Gaß told Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland. Things will be “extremely difficult in the weeks ahead,” he said.

The drastic situation is the result of the government’s policy of deliberately allowing the contagion to run wild. With the current Infection Protection Act, which came into force on October 1, the federal coalition government has eliminated almost all remaining protective measures. New measures—most notably lockdowns, such as the closure of schools—are now prevented by the law.

The president of the Standing Conference of State Education Ministers, Karin Prien (Christian Democratic Union, CDU), recently emphasized that as in all other areas of life, the motto “living with the virus” now applies to schools as well.

Recent studies on the long-term consequences of a coronavirus infection, especially for children, have revealed the criminal results of this policy. A recently published study by the Erlangen University Hospital, which examines the long-term consequences of COVID infections in children and adolescents, concludes that minors experience enormous changes to their lungs due to infection.

Through examinations with a special MRI, researchers determined that in study participants the air and blood flow of the lungs no longer functioned properly. “In the recovered group, the V/Q (ventilation/perfusion) ratio was 62 percent, and in the group with Long COVID, it was 60 percent—both a significantly lower value than the ratio of 81 percent in the healthy control subjects,” explained Dr. Ferdinand Knieling, a specialist in paediatrics and adolescent medicine at the Children’s Hospital at Erlangen University Hospital.

This means that the air and blood flow of those infected was significantly lower than in uninfected children and adolescents. How long ago the infection had occurred did not matter, according to Dr. Knieling; lung function was lower in all cases.

Another recent study by the University Hospital of Düsseldorf and health insurer AOK found that children from poor families had a significantly higher risk of contracting severe COVID-19 than children of wealthy families.

The study looked at the period from the beginning of the pandemic to July 2021, before the start of the Delta wave. Data from nearly 700,000 children and adolescents insured via the AOK were included, with 1,600 of them (0.2 percent) being hospitalized due to coronavirus.
The study found that children whose parents were unemployed or had low-paying jobs were 1.4 times more likely to be hospitalized. For children living in a deprived neighbourhood, the risk is as much as three times higher. Both figures are independent of pre-existing conditions—i.e., they emerge from social conditions.

The study is a follow-up to one in which the AOK looked at the risk of severe illness among the long-term unemployed in the early months of 2020. Using data from 1.3 million insured persons, the study concluded that recipients of unemployment benefit have a 17.5 percent increased risk of coronavirus-related hospitalization. Recipients of the lower unemployment benefit have an 84 percent increased risk. The results are independent of age and gender in both cases.

Official RKI figures also show a clear link between social status and deaths from COVID-19.

During the second coronavirus wave in the winter of 2020/21, an average of about 45 out of 100,000 men and 30 out of 100,000 women died in wealthier population groups, whereas nearly 80 out of 100,000 men and about 40 out of 100,000 women died in poorer population groups.

“Social disparities have a significant impact on health outcomes. This is also evident in the Covid pandemic. But an individual’s health should not depend on social status,” Günter Wältermann, CEO of AOK Rheinland/Hamburg, said after the first study was published. “We have known for a long time that poverty and health are linked,” said Prof. Nico Dragano of Düsseldorf University Hospital.

In fact, poor men live on average 10 years less than rich ones. For women, the figure is eight years. Poor people also suffer more frequently from diabetes, cardiovascular disease and other illnesses. They often do not have the means to obtain adequate or optimal medical treatment.

The pandemic has significantly exacerbated the class issues in health. Workers live predominantly in cramped housing conditions. Working from home is not possible for many, without a suitable room, sufficient space and adequate IT equipment, or a job that can be done remotely. The trade unions have also played a crucial role in forcing workers back to workplaces in unsafe conditions, where coronavirus outbreaks occur regularly.

In the last week alone, the RKI recorded 65 outbreaks in workplaces and 45 outbreaks in training centres. However, due to a lack of infrastructure and recording capabilities, the actual numbers are far higher.

The increasing knowledge about the dangerous consequences of COVID infections and the again exploding infection and death figures underline the criminal character of the policies of the ruling class: The health and life of the population are being sacrificed to capitalist profit interests. In Germany alone, more than 150,000 people have already succumbed to the virus.

To stop the mass deaths and implement the scientifically necessary measures to end the pandemic, the intervention of the working class, equipped with an international socialist program, is necessary.

New Coronavirus News from 16 Oct 2022

As COVID surges in Germany, studies show more risks from infections for children [WSWS, 16 Oct 2022]

By Tamino Dreisam

As a massive coronavirus wave develops in the autumn and hospitalization rates skyrocket, more and more studies are revealing the dangerous consequences of COVID infection, even for children.

The number of coronavirus infections in Germany has increased exponentially in recent weeks, with more than 100,000 people becoming infected daily. On Thursday alone, 145,000 infections were reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Just a week ago, an average of “only” 62,000 people were being infected every day. According to official figures, 1.4 million people in Germany are currently infected: about one in 60 inhabitants.

The actual figures are much higher. Only positive PCR tests are included in the RKI statistics. However, many people do not take a PCR test after a positive lateral flow test. The testing infrastructure and mandatory testing have been almost completely scaled back. The high positive test rate of 47.8 percent gives an indication of the high number of unreported cases.

As the number of infections increases, the number of those who experience a severe illness also skyrockets. The adjusted hospitalization incidence rate is now almost 20 per 100,000 inhabitants, which corresponds to 15,000 hospitalizations per week, meaning it has doubled in less than two weeks. At latest count, the number of people being treated in intensive care is 1,706.

The German Hospital Association (DKG) warns of hospitals becoming overloaded. Compared to the previous week, bed occupancy for those with COVID “increased by 50 percent,” the chairman of the board Gerald Gaß told Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland. Things will be “extremely difficult in the weeks ahead,” he said.

The drastic situation is the result of the government’s policy of deliberately allowing the contagion to run wild. With the current Infection Protection Act, which came into force on October 1, the federal coalition government has eliminated almost all remaining protective measures. New measures—most notably lockdowns, such as the closure of schools—are now prevented by the law.

The president of the Standing Conference of State Education Ministers, Karin Prien (Christian Democratic Union, CDU), recently emphasized that as in all other areas of life, the motto “living with the virus” now applies to schools as well.

Recent studies on the long-term consequences of a coronavirus infection, especially for children, have revealed the criminal results of this policy. A recently published study by the Erlangen University Hospital, which examines the long-term consequences of COVID infections in children and adolescents, concludes that minors experience enormous changes to their lungs due to infection.

Through examinations with a special MRI, researchers determined that in study participants the air and blood flow of the lungs no longer functioned properly. “In the recovered group, the V/Q (ventilation/perfusion) ratio was 62 percent, and in the group with Long COVID, it was 60 percent—both a significantly lower value than the ratio of 81 percent in the healthy control subjects,” explained Dr. Ferdinand Knieling, a specialist in paediatrics and adolescent medicine at the Children’s Hospital at Erlangen University Hospital.

This means that the air and blood flow of those infected was significantly lower than in uninfected children and adolescents. How long ago the infection had occurred did not matter, according to Dr. Knieling; lung function was lower in all cases.

Another recent study by the University Hospital of Düsseldorf and health insurer AOK found that children from poor families had a significantly higher risk of contracting severe COVID-19 than children of wealthy families.

The study looked at the period from the beginning of the pandemic to July 2021, before the start of the Delta wave. Data from nearly 700,000 children and adolescents insured via the AOK were included, with 1,600 of them (0.2 percent) being hospitalized due to coronavirus.
The study found that children whose parents were unemployed or had low-paying jobs were 1.4 times more likely to be hospitalized. For children living in a deprived neighbourhood, the risk is as much as three times higher. Both figures are independent of pre-existing conditions—i.e., they emerge from social conditions.

The study is a follow-up to one in which the AOK looked at the risk of severe illness among the long-term unemployed in the early months of 2020. Using data from 1.3 million insured persons, the study concluded that recipients of unemployment benefit have a 17.5 percent increased risk of coronavirus-related hospitalization. Recipients of the lower unemployment benefit have an 84 percent increased risk. The results are independent of age and gender in both cases.

Official RKI figures also show a clear link between social status and deaths from COVID-19.

During the second coronavirus wave in the winter of 2020/21, an average of about 45 out of 100,000 men and 30 out of 100,000 women died in wealthier population groups, whereas nearly 80 out of 100,000 men and about 40 out of 100,000 women died in poorer population groups.

“Social disparities have a significant impact on health outcomes. This is also evident in the Covid pandemic. But an individual’s health should not depend on social status,” Günter Wältermann, CEO of AOK Rheinland/Hamburg, said after the first study was published. “We have known for a long time that poverty and health are linked,” said Prof. Nico Dragano of Düsseldorf University Hospital.

In fact, poor men live on average 10 years less than rich ones. For women, the figure is eight years. Poor people also suffer more frequently from diabetes, cardiovascular disease and other illnesses. They often do not have the means to obtain adequate or optimal medical treatment.

The pandemic has significantly exacerbated the class issues in health. Workers live predominantly in cramped housing conditions. Working from home is not possible for many, without a suitable room, sufficient space and adequate IT equipment, or a job that can be done remotely. The trade unions have also played a crucial role in forcing workers back to workplaces in unsafe conditions, where coronavirus outbreaks occur regularly.

In the last week alone, the RKI recorded 65 outbreaks in workplaces and 45 outbreaks in training centres. However, due to a lack of infrastructure and recording capabilities, the actual numbers are far higher.

The increasing knowledge about the dangerous consequences of COVID infections and the again exploding infection and death figures underline the criminal character of the policies of the ruling class: The health and life of the population are being sacrificed to capitalist profit interests. In Germany alone, more than 150,000 people have already succumbed to the virus.

To stop the mass deaths and implement the scientifically necessary measures to end the pandemic, the intervention of the working class, equipped with an international socialist program, is necessary.

New Coronavirus News from 18 Oct 2022

With winter ahead, Germany reconsiders mask mandates [DW, 18 Oct 2022]

By Sabine Kinkartz

The number of COVID-19 infections is rising, and hospitals are filling up. While some countries say the pandemic is over, lawmakers in Germany are calling for tighter protective measures as winter approaches.

Fall has arrived in Germany, and colorful autumn leaves swirl over Berlin's Kurfürstendamm boulevard, where high-end stores line either side of the historic street: clothing, perfume, gifts.

Ku'damm, as Berliners call it, thrives on people seduced by the luxury products displayed in shop windows.

Right now, the coronavirus pandemic seems a distant memory. Social distancing is a thing of the past, and only a handful of customers wear face masks in shops. Signs asking people to wear them have also disappeared.

But that could all change soon. Hospitals are sounding the alarm, with more and more doctors and health care workers pushing for a speedy reintroduction of mandatory mask-wearing indoors.

As the number of coronavirus infections increases, so does the pressure on hospitals. In many clinics, normal operations are no longer possible.

Germany's public health institute, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), says there are already as many coronavirus patients in hospitals as there were during this year's peak. And the numbers are going up.

Masks — bad for business?
Now, Berlin and Brandenburg are the first of Germany's 16 federal states considering a reintroduction of mandatory masks for indoor public spaces, at least in retail.

"The prospects aren't good," says Ginia Tarique, who stands behind the counter of a Ku'damm clothing store.

"We have a lot of visitors from abroad, and they don't like the masks," she says, folding a dark-blue sweater. "Then we'd definitely have far fewer customers again."

It would also be more expensive, says Tarique. "We'd need someone at the door again, to check that people are wearing masks when they come in."

But, she says, they have no influence over what happens in the changing rooms: "Nobody can really control that."

German hospitals filling up
Health Minister Karl Lauterbach, a Social Democrat (SPD) lawmaker, says Germany is well-prepared for fall and winter thanks to adapted vaccines and medicines. Despite that, he warns of what might lie ahead.

"The direction we're headed is not a good one," he recently said, referring to the situation in Germany's hospitals. Deaths are also increasing despite the current omicron variant causing less severe cases.

At the moment, Germany's intensive care units are mostly occupied by elderly patients and others whose health risks remain high even with the milder omicron variant.

According to the Association of German Hospitals (DKG), most COVID-19 patients are being treated in normal wards. They are often admitted with a coronavirus infection, not severe COVID-19 symptoms. Still, infected patients have to be isolated, which requires more space, and more personnel.

And that's where the problem lies. Hospitals have long struggled to find enough skilled workers, with most wards chronically understaffed. Now they are struggling even more as the number of infected hospital workers rises.

As a result, beds have to remain empty; in some cases, entire wards have to be shut down.

Scheduled treatment and operations are being postponed, and emergency room patients suffering heart attacks or other life-threatening illnesses cannot be admitted. The energy crisis and the associated financial worries are also adding to the health sector's woes.

Under Germany's Protection Against Infection Act (IfSG), it is no longer the federal government that is responsible for implementing mask regulations, but the states.

That means Health Minister Lauterbach, who fervently supports a renewed indoor mask mandate, can implore state leaders to act but not compel them. It is better to work with minor restrictions now than having to react with very drastic measures later, he argues.

Opinions differ dramatically on mask mandates
"I would understand a new mask requirement," says Berlin saleswoman Jeannet Seidel, "but we really don't want it." Seidel works in a small boutique on a Kurfürstendamm side street.

"It's exhausting to wear a mask at work all day," she says. "There's also an air purifier running in the shop. But if it has to happen again, then so be it."

Fortunately, says Seidel, customers have been very understanding in the past when it came to protective measures.

But that's not the case everywhere. Opinions on mask-wearing in Germany have long been divided.

And where masks are still compulsory, in trains or on local public transport for instance, there's often trouble, especially when staff attempt to enforce the rule.

At a Berlin doctor's office, an employee says she constantly encounters problems with patients who come in without a mask, despite a notice on the front door.

"They often become really aggressive and claim they have an allergy to the mask or just say they won't accept having to wear one," she says.

Debate is also growing on social media. Under the hashtags #maskmandatenow and #masksarenomildmeasure, users insult each other and double down on their respective stances.

Opinion also differs among senior politicians. Bavarian State Premier Markus Söder said he's "currently reluctant" to reinstate a mask mandate in indoor public spaces. "Everyone can protect themselves by voluntarily putting on a mask and being vaccinated," he recently told the weekly paper Bild am Sonntag.

Making the best of a bad situation
Back on Berlin's Kurfürstendamm, the mood is much more relaxed. Are masks bad for business? No, that's never been the case, says the deputy manager of a perfume shop who asked to remain anonymous.

"We're standing in such a cloud of perfume in here that customers have to go outside with test strips to smell anything anyway. Out there they can take off their masks."

"We have to deal with the pandemic and its consequences," she says, wearing an FFP2 mask by choice. Hers is purple — to coordinate with her outfit.

"We're a small shop and there can be eight or 10 customers in the room within 15 minutes," she says.

She prefers to protect herself in light of rising infection numbers. "Several friends of mine were on vacation and they all have COVID now," she says.

She also says she's not surprised: "Unlike on the train, you no longer have to wear a mask on planes. To be honest, I don't understand the difference."

Surge in COVID-19 infections deepens crisis in Germany's hospitals [WSWS, 18 Oct 2022]

By Markus Salzmann

The occupancy rate in Germany’s hospitals due to rising coronavirus infections has doubled nationwide in just one week. In several federal states, intensive care units and emergency rooms are hopelessly overwhelmed. Beds cannot be used due to staff shortages, and many hospitals have opted out of offering emergency care.

The rapid surge of the pandemic in Germany and internationally is once again bringing hospitals, which have been operating at their limits for almost three years, to the brink of collapse. This development was not only predictable, it was consciously accepted. Despite the dangers for patients and workers, the federal and state governments are not prepared to implement even the most basic protective measures.

Gerald Gass, chairman of the German Hospital Association (DKG), recently reported that planned operations and treatments are already being postponed, and urgently needed beds are being left empty due to a lack of personnel. “These are things that are probably happening in half of the hospitals right now,” Gass said. “And the situation is likely to deteriorate even further in the coming weeks.”

According to the intensive care registry of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (Divi), 1,660 patients with COVID-19 had to be treated in intensive care units as of October 11.

The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Germany’s central disease control agency, reports that there were 220 active outbreaks in medical facilities last week, compared with 155 the previous week. In elderly care and nursing homes, the number has risen from 301 to 413. “These developments can be interpreted as a direct consequence of the rapid spread [of COVID] in recent weeks,” the report said.

In fact, the increase in hospital admissions reflects the dramatic increase in the overall number of infections, which has risen sharply. The seven-day incidence of infections per 100,000 inhabitants was reported by the RKI on Monday at 680. On the same day, the RKI reported 151,420 new infections. Experts assume that the number of infections is much higher, because many infected people no longer perform a PCR test and are therefore not recorded in the official statistics. The death toll is also rising sharply again. Between 100 and 200 people die from COVID-19 every day.

In Berlin, the Senate Health Department reported 904 patients with COVID-19 in hospitals across the German capital on Friday. Of these, 48 required intensive medical care. One week earlier, the number of hospitalised patients was 696, and a week prior to that 543.

The Berlin state government, consisting of the Social Democrats, Left Party and Greens—the so-called red-red-green Senate—continues to do nothing in the face of this development. The SPD, Greens and Left Party are currently discussing possible measures for the coming months, but the abolition of the so-called Covid traffic light warning system already makes it clear that the government is concerned above all with glossing over the increasing number of infections.

Health administrators claim that the “traffic light,” which has been red virtually continuously throughout the last few months, is no longer the right instrument because current infections have less severe disease outcomes.

In Brandenburg, the number of cases in hospitals has increased tenfold compared to the same time last year. Last Tuesday, the Strausberg, Seelow and Wriezen hospitals again imposed a ban on visits in order to curb the spread. The seven-day incidence in the federal state rose to 744.1 infections per 100,000 inhabitants, almost doubling compared to the previous week.

The Carl-Thiem-Klinikum Hospital in Cottbus is struggling to cope with the massive increase of patients and the simultaneous loss of staff due to COVID-19. Managing Director Götz Brodermann told the rbb on Thursday that the hospital was once again on the verge of a threshold at which wards had to be closed.

Brandenburg’s Minister of the Interior and state leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU) Michael Stübgen nonetheless stated that the CDU/Green coalition state government would not take any measures to counteract this development. He said that measures “do not make sense” because he has no data suggesting that the health care system is overburdened.

The Hessenschau reported that of the 2,025 beds in normal wards kept available in the state of Hesse for COVID-19 patients, 1,922 were occupied on Friday, 500 more than a week earlier. A further 169 patients with COVID-19 were in intensive care. There, too, almost all of the 190 beds reserved for COVID-19 patients are occupied. The Ministry of Social Affairs reports “almost nationwide” supply shortages in internal and intensive care medicine.

The situation in the Bavarian capital of Munich and its surroundings is particularly severe. Two weeks after the end of the Oktoberfest in Munich, the warnings made by doctors and virologists have been proven correct.

Markus Lerch, medical director of the LMU Clinic in Munich, explained that there are now more Covid patients being treated than in any other wave. In addition, there are also staff absences. In some cases, 500 employees were sick at the same time.

The works council for the Munich Clinic, which operates five hospitals, warned in a letter to Munich Mayor Dieter Reiter (SPD) that the health care system in the city could collapse. “The emergency wards are overcrowded, the patients are piling up in the corridors,” declared the damning letter. The hospitals are “dangerously overcrowded,” and 30 to 50 percent of the employees are themselves sick.

In some cases, patients in Munich and the surrounding area are transferred from hospital to hospital, depending on which institution still has capacity. The hospital in Haag in the district of Mühldorf am Inn has closed entirely until the end of January. The remaining staff have been deployed to other hospitals in the district.

In the city of Munich, the seven-day incidence on Thursday was 1,234 infections per 100,000 inhabitants, down from almost 1,500 infections two days earlier. In Fürstenfeldbruck, the corresponding rate was 1,474 infections, and in Ebersberg 1,253. Overall, the incidence in the state of Bavaria is over 1,000 infections per 100,000 inhabitants. Bavaria is also assumed to have a high number of unreported cases.