New Coronavirus News from 3 Jan 2023

Novel indicator for the spread of new coronavirus disease 2019 and its association with human mobility in Japan [Nature.com, 3 Jan 2023]

Authored by Yuta Kawakami, Shuko Nojiri, Daisuke Nakamoto, Yoshiki Irie, Satoshi Miyazawa, Manabu Kuroki & Yuji Nishizaki

Abstract
The Japanese government adopted policies to control human mobility in 2020 to prevent the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study examined the impact of human mobility on COVID-19 cases at the prefectural level in Japan by devising an indicator to have a relationship between the number of infected people and on human mobility. We calculated origin–destination travel mobility within prefectures in Japan from March 1st to December 31st, 2020, using mobile phone data. A cross-correlation function (CCF) was used to examine the relationship between human mobility and a COVID-19 infection acceleration indicator (IAI), which represents the rate of change in the speed of COVID-19 infection. The CCF of intraprefectural human mobility and the IAI in Tokyo showed a maximum value of 0.440 at lag day 12, and the IAI could be used as an indicator to predict COVID-19 cases. Therefore, the IAI and human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic were useful for predicting infection status. The number of COVID-19 cases was associated with human mobility at the prefectural level in Japan in 2020. Controlling human mobility could help control infectious diseases in a pandemic, especially prior to starting vaccination.

Scientific Reports volume 13, Article number: 115 (2023)

New Coronavirus News from 6 Jan 2023

By Youri Benadjaoud

XBB.1.5 makes up an estimated 75% of new COVID-19 cases in the Northeast.

The World Health Organization is warning that a new omicron subvariant known as XBB.1.5 is the most transmissible strain to date.

As COVID-19 hospitalizations rise in some parts of the Northeast -- where the subvariant makes up about an estimated 75% of new cases, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -- so are concerns about how to mitigate a potential surge following large holiday gatherings.

In the past few years, the post-holiday rise in COVID numbers was typically attributed to large gatherings and the colder weather bringing people indoors. Experts said it remains to be seen how much XBB.1.5 may be contributing to the most recent rise in hospitalizations.

"We don't fully know what this variant is doing in the population, especially since every time a new variant emerges it's not happening in a bubble … so it's very difficult to tease apart what might be driving, for instance, increases in hospitalizations," said Dr. John Brownstein, an ABC News contributor and chief innovation officer at Boston Children's Hospital.

Very little is known about this new subvariant, but some preliminary research indicates that it may be more immune evasive and contagious than previous omicron variants.

"We are concerned about [XBB.1.5's] growth advantage" in Europe and the U.S. Northeast, said Maria Van Kerkhove, the World Health Organization's COVID-19 technical lead, in a press conference Wednesday. XBB.1.5 had rapidly replaced other circulating variants in those areas, she added.

Scientists still do not know if the subvariant causes more severe illness or leads to more adverse outcomes like long COVID.

Researchers are also still studying how well vaccines will hold up against XBB.1.5. They say the updated bivalent booster shot remains the best way to protect yourself.

"Towards the end of last year, the CDC came out with data showing that those who got vaccinated and boosted with the bivalent had an almost 20-fold decreased risk of dying and severe illness," Dr. Peter Hotez, co-director of Texas Children's Hospital Center for Vaccine Development and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, told ABC News. "The problem is that was all before XBB.1.5."

Older adults, immunocompromised people and those with certain medical conditions are still most at-risk for severe illness and death.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration pulled the last remaining monoclonal antibody in end of November, leaving antiviral therapies such as Paxlovid as the preferred treatment for at-risk adults who haven't been hospitalized. But experts say not enough people are taking advantage of the medication.

"Getting the word out both to individuals, as well as primary care physicians, about the importance of getting Paxlovid is really of great importance," Hotez said.

White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha explained in a thread on Twitter that the federal government was continuing to track XBB.1.5 and other variants closely, while providing support for access to updated vaccines, free tests and treatment and improved ventilation and filtration in buildings.

"I think the jury's still out. But I think we know how to mitigate these surges with vaccines, with testing, with the practices we've engaged in throughout the pandemic. There's no reason to expect that this is going to completely derail our ability to contain this virus," Brownstein said.

China Covid: Celebrity deaths spark fears over death toll [BBC, 6 Jan 2023]

By Fan Wang

The growing number of Chinese public figures whose deaths are being made public is prompting people to question the official Covid death toll.

The death of Chu Lanlan, a 40-year-old opera singer, last month came as a shock to many, given how young she was.

Her family said they were saddened by her "abrupt departure", but did not give details of the cause of her death.

China scrapped its strict zero-Covid policy in December and has seen a rapid surge of infections and deaths.

There are reports of hospitals and crematoria becoming overwhelmed.

But the country has stopped publishing daily cases data, and has announced only 22 Covid deaths since December, using its own strict criteria.

Now only those who die from respiratory illnesses such as pneumonia are counted.

On Wednesday the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that China was under-representing the true impact of Covid in the country - in particular deaths.

But the deaths of Chu Lanlan and others is sparking speculation about greater losses than those reported on official accounts.

According to the specialist news website Operawire, Chu Lanlan was a soprano who specialised in Peking Opera - a theatrical art in which performers use speech, song, dance and combat movements to tell stories - and was also involved in charitable causes.

On New Year's Day news of the death of actor Gong Jintang devastated many Chinese internet users.

Gong, 83, was known to many households for his performance in the country's longest-running TV series, In-Laws, Out-laws. His portrait of Father Kang had captivated fans for more than two decades since the show first aired in 2000.

The cause of his death is unclear, but many social media users linked it to the recent deaths of other older people.

"Please god, please treat the elderly better," his co-star Hu Yanfen wrote on Chinese social media platform Weibo.

"R.I.P Father Kang. This wave have really claimed many elders' lives, let's make sure we protect the elderly in our families," one user wrote on Weibo.

Acclaimed scriptwriter Ni Zhen was also among recent deaths. The 84-year-old was famous for his work on the 1991 film Raise the Red Lantern, which is widely considered to be one of the best Chinese films by critics.

Meanwhile Hu Fuming, a former journalist and retired professor of Nanjing University, died on 2 January at the age of 87.

He was the main author of a famous commentary published in 1978 that marked the start of the China's "Boluan Fanzheng" period - a time of eliminating chaos and returning to normal after the upheaval of the Cultural Revolution under the country's first Communist leader Mao Zedong.

According to a tally by Chinese media, 16 scientists from the country's top science and engineering academies died between 21 and 26 December.

None of these deaths were linked to Covid in their obituaries, but that hasn't prevented speculation online.

"Did he also die of 'bad flu'?" one of the top-rated comments under news of Mr Ni's death said.

"Even if you trawl through the whole internet you can't find any reference to his cause of death," said another internet user.

But there was also criticism of demonstrators who took to the streets in November in rare political protests calling for the end of leader Xi Jinping's zero-Covid policy.

"Are those people happy now, seeing old people... now paving the way for their freedom?" asked one social media user.

• The new generation powering China's protests
Mr Xi appeared to refer obliquely to the protests in his New Year's address, saying it was natural in such a big country for people to have different opinions.

But he urged people to come together and show unity as China entered a "new phase" in its approach to Covid.

The Chinese authorities are aware of the widespread scepticism although they continue to play down the severity of this wave of Covid sweeping the country.

In an interview with state TV, the director of Beijing's Institute of Respiratory Diseases admitted the number of deaths of elderly people so far this winter was "definitely more" than in past years, while also stressing that critical cases remained a minority of the overall number of Covid cases.

This week the People's Daily, the Communist Party's official newspaper, urged citizens to work towards a "final victory" over Covid and dismissed criticism of the previous zero-Covid policy.

China lifted zero-Covid. Now its top scientists are dying at a shocking rate [South China Morning Post, 6 Jan 2023]

By Stephen Chen

More senior Chinese engineers and scientists have died in less than a month than typically die in a year following the government’s decision to lift Covid controls, a leading scientific body has said.

The Chinese Academy of Engineering said on its website that 20 members had died between December 15 and January 4.

This compares with an average of 16 deaths a year between 2017 and 2021 and 13 deaths in 2021.

The academy, China’s most prestigious engineering body, has more than 900 members who have been involved in the conception, design and construction of nearly all the country’s mega-projects, including the Three Gorges dam, high-speed rail network and the Tiangong space station.

It has not responded to requests for comment.

The youngest academy member to die was Ti Tianchu, 77, a physicist who specialised in atomic clocks, while the oldest was 102-year-old Zhang Jinzhe, who established China’s first paediatric surgery department at Peking University Hospital in 1950.

Those who died recently include Xu Mi, chief engineer of China’s fast nuclear reactor programme; Zhao Zisen, who developed China’s first optical fibre; Zhang Guocheng, a founding engineer in China’s rare earth industry; and Zhao Yinjun, a top national science and technology prizewinner for his contribution to China’s laser weapons.

The academy did not provide a cause of death for any of these members.

A doctor working at a major hospital in Beijing, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the topic, said these academy members usually received privileged medical treatment equivalent to that received by deputy ministers in the central government.

But he said recently there were no beds available and they would be lucky to find a space in the lobby.

The pandemic also caused a run on resources in the public health system that delayed the treatment of other diseases, he added.

The Chinese government has stopped releasing the number of coronavirus infections after abruptly abandoning its zero-Covid policy in early December.

It has also narrowed the definition of Covid deaths to exclude all those with pre-existing conditions, prompting the World Health Organization to warn that official data is under-representing the number of deaths.

Zeng Guang, a former chief scientist at China’s Centre for Disease Control, told an online conference on December 30 that he estimated that more than 80 per cent of the population in Beijing, where most senior scientists and engineers live, had been infected.

Other Chinese research organisations have reported similar losses.

Tsinghua University, the nation’s top-ranked research university for natural science, started trending on social media after it started posting an unusually large number of obituaries on its campus network.

The sudden death of pharmacologist Jiang Hualiang on December 24 in Shanghai also shocked the nation because the 57-year-old, a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, was leading some major drug development programmes, including treatments for Covid-19.

Some younger Chinese academics have also died after becoming infected.

Wang Teng, a 32 year old architect at Sichuan Architecture Vocational Technology College, died on campus last month after developing a high fever following a positive test, The Beijing News reported.

A Beijing-based physicist in his thirties told the Post that he had been forced to return to work before he fully recovered because he was working on a project with a deadline that “won’t wait”.

“Covid may have damaged my health. From time to time I have to pause for a while to catch my breath,” said the researcher, who tested positive in mid-December.

It is too early to estimate the overall impact of the pandemic on China’s science and technology sector, according to the researcher who asked not to be named because he was not authorised to speak to the media about the issue.

“Now our border is reopening. We can meet with colleagues from around the world to generate new ideas again, and work closely on some exciting projects,” he said.

Japan reports 245542 new coronavirus cases [Japan Today, 6 Jan 2023]

TOKYO

Japan on Friday reported 245,542 coronavirus cases, up 18,638 from Thursday. Tokyo reported 20,720 new cases, down 15 from Thursday.

The number of infected people hospitalized with severe symptoms in Tokyo was 53, up four from Thursday, health officials said. The nationwide figure was 659, up nine from Thursday.
The number of coronavirus-related deaths reported nationwide was 456.