New Coronavirus News from 20 Jan 2023

China announces lunar new year censorship crackdown to silence Covid ‘rumours’ [The Guardian, 20 Jan 2023]

Plan to target ‘gloomy sentiments’ across festival period comes as independent health forecasters estimate over 600,000 deaths from Covid

Chinese cyber authorities have announced an internet censorship crackdown to ensure there are no “gloomy sentiments” caused by pandemic “rumours” during the lunar new year festival.

It comes as health forecasting firm Airfinity estimated more than 600,000 people have likely died since zero-Covid restrictions were lifted in December – 10 times more than Chinese authorities have officially declared.

The month-long “Spring Festival online improvement” program will target those spreading what authorities deem to be “rumours” about the spread of Covid and patient experiences.

The national cyber administration specified “in-depth rectification of false information and other issues to prevent gloomy sentiments”.

It specifically cited the investigation and punishment of “online rumours related to the epidemic” and “fabricating patient experiences”, as well as producing or sharing fake virus treatments. The announcement said the work would “prevent misleading the public and causing social panic”.

Online, social media has been awash with personal stories of people contracting Covid, struggling to source medication or healthcare, and losing elderly relatives to the disease. The personal experiences of many jarred with the official narrative that the outbreak was under control and the response “science led”, prompting unusual levels of online criticism against the government.

On Saturday health officials announced an updated death toll of almost 60,000 people. The figure included only those who had died in hospital. Previously, the government had only reported about 5,000 Covid deaths since the pandemic began, including just a few dozen since the zero Covid policy was abandoned in early December. It was at odds with widespread reports of fatalities, with some major cities reporting infection rates of up to 90% of their populations.

The ruling Communist party government is hypersensitive to foreign criticism of its Covid response and accusations that it is not being transparent with data. Early warnings about the outbreak by Chinese doctor Li Wenliang were initially dismissed and punished as rumour. More recent reporting on the mass outbreak following the lifting of restrictions was branded a “China-bashing carnival” in state media.

Health officials have claimed the current wave of infections has peaked, but it followed warnings of further infections spread across lunar new year as hundreds of millions of people travel across the country. People were urged not to visit elderly relatives unless necessary.

On Thursday, independent forecaster Airfinity said their new modelling had raised estimates of case numbers and fatalities in China. It said the number of deaths since December was now estimated at 608,000, up from the previous estimate of 437,000.

The organisation also changed its forecast of two successive infection waves to one, which was “larger and more severe”, bringing as many as 62m new cases over the 14-day holiday period.

“Deaths are forecast to peak at 36,000 a day on the 26th of January during the Lunar New Year Festival. This is up from our previous estimate of deaths peaking at 25,000 a day,” it said.

“The implication of one larger wave as opposed to two smaller ones is increased pressure on hospitals and crematoriums and therefore also potentially a higher case fatality ratio.”

China’s censors have appeared to struggle to control critical social media commentary in the wake of the zero Covid policy reversal. The new program shows a renewed effort to stamp out dissent, and ensure China’s online environment reflects the Party’s image and ideals.

“After all this, they will say you have to be happy, it will be politically incorrect if you are not happy,” said one Chinese Twitter user in response.

“It seems that the best way to solve the problem is to ‘cover your mouth’.” said another. “I can’t say anything but praise.”

The Spring festival program also continues an ongoing crackdown on excessive fan culture and illegal gambling, and targets online glorification of excessive consumption and wealth.

As examples, it cited people deliberately showing off their “luxury life” with excessive dinners, year-end bonuses, large red envelopes of cash (a traditional New Years gift) and expensive gifts.

The administration said it would also “investigate and deal with the deliberate displaying of images of overeating and drinking during the Spring Festival, and promoting extravagant and wasteful information.”

COVID casts shadow over Lunar New Year celebrations in China [PBS NewsHour, 20 Jan 2023]

Medical experts predict China could see tens of thousands of deaths a day over the Lunar New Year holiday. Since the dismantling of the government’s zero-COVID policy, many have been anxious about the wave of infections that have swept through. As special correspondent Richard Kimber reports, most are brushing risks and fears aside to celebrate the most important festival on the Chinese calendar.

Read the Full Transcript
• Geoff Bennett:
Since the abrupt dismantling of the Chinese government's zero COVID policy, many people have been anxious about China opening up to the rest of the world and the wave of infections that have swept through the country.

But, as special correspondent Richard Kimber reports, most are brushing risks and fears aside to celebrate the most important festival on the Chinese calendar, the lunar new year.
• Richard Kimber:
It's just days to go before the start of the Spring Festival. In Beijing, the holiday rush has already begun.

This is the first time mass travel without COVID restrictions has been allowed in nearly three years. For many of the capital's migrant workers who come to make a better living for their families, it's an emotional return home to be with their loved ones.

Qin Ziguang from Changchun in Northeastern China hasn't been back in five years.
•　Qin Ziguang, Migrant Worker (through translator):
Finally, I'm going back home. Before, I was quite busy in Beijing, and, in the past few years, I couldn't go back because of the epidemic.
•　Richard Kimber:
China's Ministry of Transport says it expects travel to double compared to a year ago to more than two billion trips over the holiday period. It would mark a recovery to 70 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

Scenes at the railway station are in stark contrast with how it looked before China abandoned its strict zero COVID approach, following widespread anger over pandemic curbs. Gone are the security personnel dressed in hazmat suits that patrolled transport hubs. And Q.R. health code checkpoints where people have to verify their health status before entering are nowhere to be seen either.
•　Qin Ziguang (through translator):
Of course, it's now more convenient. It's easy coming in and out. I can go wherever I want.
•　Richard Kimber:
But now the virus has been let loose, some aren't taking chances.

One man we spoke to called Hua said, even though he's returning home, he won't be visiting friends or relatives.
•　Hua, Property Manager (through translator):
The epidemic hasn't ended. I wear this to protect myself, as well as others.
• Richard Kimber:
London-based health analytics firm Airfinity forecasts that China could see as many as 36,000 deaths a day over the Spring Festival holidays.

Over the past two months, COVID-19 has ripped through the country, crowding out hospitals and filling crematoriums like this one. Officially, about 60,000 people have died of COVID-19 since early December. That's according to China's National Health Commission. Medical experts say the true figure could be 10 times that. But it's hard to say exactly where the death toll stands.

The World Health Organization has accused China of underestimating the severity of its outbreak. Earlier this month, it also said a lack of data from the country was making it difficult to help manage the risks.

Mike Ryan is executive director of the WHO.
•　Dr. Mike Ryan, Executive Director, World Health Organization:
We do want and are working ever closer with our colleagues in China to try and understand better the transmission dynamics. But we still do not have adequate information to make a full comprehensive risk assessment. And, therefore, we will continue to try to encourage access to that data.
•　Richard Kimber:
Medical experts have also warned that the rapid spread of the virus now might make the emergence of mutations more likely.

Several countries, including the U.S., have imposed travel restrictions on arrivals from China.

But, at the same time, many other places are welcoming the return of Chinese tourists, among them, Hong Kong. It's a special administrative region of China. Even it had been largely cut off from the mainland until borders fully reopened this month.

The high-speed rail line behind me that connects the Chinese mainland to Hong Kong has been closed throughout the pandemic. Now its reopening is expected to see a surge in the number of Chinese tourists coming across the border. And just to give you an idea of how important that is for the Hong Kong economy, before the COVID-19 pandemic, more than two-thirds of the 56 million arrivals into Hong Kong from overseas came from across the border.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, the city has fallen into a deep recession. Many people are praying a rebound in retail and tourism will help lift the economy. But economists remain pessimistic and say a meaningful recovery could take much longer.

Its fate is tied closely to the mainland's uncertain outlook. China's surveyed unemployment rate for December likely stood above the government's targeted ceiling of 5.5 percent.

Dan Wang is chief economist with Hang Seng Bank.
•　Dan Wang, Chief Economist, Hang Seng Bank:
With this kind of high unemployment rate, people's expectation for future growth prospect is quite low. And, with that, that means, even if we see some of the rebound for the tourist sites and big cities, the general recovery will not really be there. We really have to wait until 2024 before we see the general recovery.
•　Richard Kimber:
But, as the country marks its first Spring Festival free from COVID restrictions, many people are simply celebrating the moment and hoping to put the past few tough years behind them.

Covid Catastrophe Looms for China's New Year Travelers [Bloomberg, 20 Jan 2023]

• Sparse health care, elderly residents put rural China at risk
• World’s largest outbreak to spread across China during holiday

The sudden dismantling of China’s Covid Zero restrictions in December means hundreds of millions of people are headed home for the Lunar New Year holiday for the first time since 2019. The crush of travel risks supercharging the world’s biggest Covid outbreak, spreading it to every corner of the country.

Travelers, from migrant workers to college students to educated urban elites, risk carrying the highly-infectious omicron strain with them to Covid-naive swathes of rural China that have managed to evade the pandemic - until now.

Known as the world’s biggest human migration, the holiday traditionally involves packed planes, trains, buses and ferries departing big cities along China’s prosperous eastern coast for remote hinterlands as workers reunite with their families ahead of the new lunar year, which begins on Sunday. This year, they may be bringing Covid-19 with them, and exposing their loved ones to it for the first time.

Some 2.1 billion trips are expected to take place during the 40-day Spring Festival period, double the number of treks from last year.

“There is a lot of jubilation around going home to celebrate the Chinese New Year, but that could also bring about tragedy for a lot of families,” said Zuo-Feng Zhang, chair of the department of epidemiology at the Fielding School of Public Health at University of California, Los Angeles.

Chinese President Xi Jinping singled out Covid’s rural spread in a nationwide video address he held before the holiday, saying he’s especially concerned about efforts to battle Covid in the countryside. Health experts are worried the virus could ravage the vulnerable in villages with sparse health care infrastructure, creating worse outcomes than the outbreaks that have already strained hospitals, overwhelmed crematoriums and crippled the nation’s megacities.

Rural China is particularly susceptible to harm from Covid, Zhang said. Nearly one in four residents are aged 60 or older, compared to 19% of the total population, a group that’s comparatively less vaccinated and more likely to develop complications. Many people are unfamiliar with the virus, with no exposure or natural immunity to the infection.

Meanwhile, medical resources in remote areas are scarce. There are only 1.62 doctors and nurses combined for every 1,000 people in rural China, compared to 2.9 doctors and 3.3 nurses nationally. Access to intensive care with experienced doctors and equipment like ventilators to help gravely ill patients survive is often miles away.

Megacities Hit
The predicative health analytics firm Airfinity Ltd. raised its estimate for China’s coming Covid deaths to peak at 36,000 a day, an increase of 11,000 every 24 hours from a previous forecast, after taking into account travel for the upcoming holiday. The London-based pandemic-tracking firm initially anticipated two Covid surges, one before and one after the Chinese New Year celebration. Now it says unfettered New Year travel will likely merge them into one massive wave.

The result is likely “a significant burden on China’s healthcare system for the next fortnight,” said Airfinity’s analytic director Matt Linley. “Many treatable patients could die due to overcrowded hospitals and lack of care.”

The virus has quickly raced through China’s megacities and highly settled regions. Henan, one of the country’s most populous provinces, said nearly 90% of its residents have been infected. Top-tier cities, from the nation’s capital Beijing and financial center Shanghai to the southern trade hub Guangzhou, have all said their outbreaks have peaked.

The sudden avalanche of disease, with some researchers projecting that more than than 900 million of the country’s 1.4 billion people have been infected, led to persistent shortages of everything from basic drugs to reduce fever to potent antivirals like Pfizer Inc.’s Paxlovid.

Covid Rips Through Rural China Ahead of Lunar New Year Migration
The true toll of the outbreak in rural areas may be hard to decipher. Government censors, concerned that overwhelmed villages and death reports from the heartland could undermine New Year celebrations, are getting more active.

The Cyberspace Administration of China, the country’s internet watchdog, recently vowed to double down on what it called Covid-related rumors ranging from fabricating estimates of the virus’s spread to experiences of getting sick that may mislead the public and cause public panic.

Health authorities, meanwhile, issued a slew of directives urging local governments to improve hospital preparation and help them work with rural clinics to handle patients with severe infections. The agriculture ministry is sending one oxygen concentrator and two pulse oximeters to village clinics across the country.

Covid Wave May Last Three More Months, China CDC Veteran Warns
It remains to be seen if the help will be sufficient or come in time.

“The plans dedicated to Covid control and prevention in rural areas are well devised, but how to implement them is a big problem,” said Zeng Guang, the former chief scientist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, at a recent seminar.

UCLA’s Zhang said the lack of information about infections makes it hard to predict the scope of severe disease and deaths ahead. Still, the epidemiologist originally from eastern China is worried about the lingering damage, well after the joy from the reunions has faded and travelers have returned to their jobs in distant factories and cities.

“This New Year travel could bring about inevitably catastrophic consequences for many families,” he said.

— With assistance by John Liu and Dong Lyu